“What part of the European economy that is is irrelevant.,” by “Aaron,” tdaxp, http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2005/01/31/academic_honesty.html, 2 February 2005.
“The study utilized a SETI@home-style aggregation of computation…,” by “Aaron,” tdaxp, http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2005/01/31/academic_honesty.html, 2 February 2005.
In two comment so interesting they demands a post as a reply, Aaron writes
“Who would we hurt by forcing Ford & brothers to increase fuel efficiency and limit emissions?”
Ford’s workers. Ford’s retirees. Dependents of ford employees. Sick people who depend on Ford’s health insurance. Any environmental trusts Ford gives too. Ford is not a healthy company (http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=1842437 and http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=1845754). But more to the point…
The study utilized a SETI@home-style aggregation of computation to provide models for what will happen when CO2 levels double. This is not a question of “if” but “when”. The history of CO2 levels is measurable by pulling up cores of Arctic ice. If you have Excel, here is that data. A linear regression model shows the rampup and the projected date of occurrance.
Using the data you provided with the Global Policy Forum’s historic gross world product table, one gets this
But more interesting is this one
It helps one get a feel for the insignificant contribution of economic growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide pressure.
I think you’re right to use linear regression to model CO2. Some quick calculations show the slope is about .41% of 1959 a year. Now this is somewhat exaggerated (the Mount Pinotubo explosion threw up so much carbon dioxide and other particles into the atmosphere that this climate forcing was more profound than from the opposite anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the Simultaneous El Nino event during 1991 to 1993), but it’s about right. At the same time the World Economy has been growing at an average compounded rate of 3.33% (or “linearly regressed” to a slope of 6.13%). That’s about a factor of ten — an order of magnitude.
One of these trends is unique of all of human history. It has lifted billions out of poverty and gave billions a life that was not nasty, brutish, and short.
The other… well, it’s not clear. It’s not clear how reliable how historic CO2 measurements are. It’s not clear what the real effect of an increase in CO2 production is. The CO2 picture’s noise.
Projecting using those rates forward, from 2005 to 2100, we see CO2 pressure increasing 32.82% — about the same percentage increase as from the Revolution until now. In the same time period gross world product increases two-thousand two-hundred fifty-four percent , a twenty-two (22.5456) fold increase. Think about that for a moment — if in 2100 we spend the equivalent of twenty-one of our current global economies on a heroic carbon scrubbing expedition, or whatever, with no economic growth resulting, the world is half-again as well off as it is now and that’s just a rounding error.
I do not think we will ever get to that point. The world is becoming increasingly energy-neutral. Energy increase increases negligably with GDP growth in advanced countries, and every country is getting more advanced. As our world moves from “atoms to bits” our energy usage will naturally decrease.
And now for the moral case…
“I get your side, Dan. People want to do better financially.”
Virtually all wars occur between states where one has an annual income of less than $3,000/year. These people are desperate, and the mass death on both sides resulting from war is a good gamble for them, because otherwise they have nothing. If we can create a bountiful world, war will fade away.
We complain about the costs of medicines, but with a world twenty-two times as rich think what medicines will be created! Think of the catastrophe of famine that has never been visited upon an industrialized democracy. Think about how cost effective it will be for the rich world to mass vaccinate the needy of the world. Think of the scientific wonders we can invent with twenty-two times the investment.
It is not about “doing better financially.” It about ending want. The worldwide capitalist revolution has destroyed hunger, misery, slavery, and war where it prevails, and is rapidly wiping out sickness. Let’s end all of those things.
You say the sky is not falling. I agree. You say it is poverty that drives South American farmers to destroy the jungles. I agree. So knowing that the sky is not falling, let’s end poverty and save the world.