Iraq’s Transitional National Assembly Projection

National Assembly Projection,” by “Stephen,” Iraq Election Discussions, http://iraqelect.com/index.php/archives/2005/02/08/national-assembly-projection/, 8 February 2005.

Iraqi ElectionsDiscussions projects the final outcome considerably better than mine.

Seats – Party/List
140 – United Iraqi Alliance (Shi’ite)
68 – Kurdish List
40 – The Iraqi List (PM Allawi)
3 – Natl Elites & Cadres (Moqtada al Sadr)
3 – People’s Union (Communist)
3 – Iraqis List (Pres. al-Yawer)
3 – IMIK (Islamist Kurdish)
15 – Other parties
275 – TOTAL SEATS

Visually,

medium_new_iraqi_assembly_projection.jpg

(Chart courtesy of OpenOffice.org Calc)

Combined, this gives a UIA-Kurdish coalition nearly 76% of the votes in the TNA. Consider the Basic Law’s three-fourths rule, where a Constitution can be created with 75% of the Assembly votes and no need of provincial approval, this could be a very powerful government. Of course, UIA is already a coalition and it’s likely that at least some UIA Assemblymen are sympathetic to either Allawi or Sadr.

It is wonderful to see what the government of a free Iraq looks like. Long live democracy in the Greater Middle East!

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