American Tory Democrat Party is imploded. The primary frartricide between Vice President Hoynes and Vice President Russell may be tearing the party apart. The Convention is in two days and they still do not have a nominee! But what if upstart Matt Santos wins the nomination?
The situation wouldn’t be good for the Republicans. Democrat Congressman Matt Santos leads Republican Senator Arnold Vinick by 44% to 28%. Unbelieveably, only one nation-wide poll exists and it is a month old. Nonetheless, it is the best we have and it reveals:
Part of Vinickâ€™s problems can be attributed to a gender gap. While he and Santos are tied among men, each getting 35% of the vote, Santos holds a commanding lead among women, where he outpolls Vinick by 53% to 22%.
Vinick also has failed to sew up Republican support. While Santos has the support of three-quarters of Democrats (74%), Vinick only has a lock on 49% of Republicans. Among independents, meanwhile, Santos leads 39% to 26%.
Inner Ring: All Voters: Santos 48%, Vinick 22%, Other/Undecided 30%
2nd Ring: Men: Santos 35%, Vinick 35%, Other/Undecided 30%
3rd Ring: Women: Santos 53%, Vinick 22%, Other/Undecided 25%
Outer Ring: Independents: Santos 39%, Vinick 26%, Other/Undecided 35%
With Vinick rarely polling above undecideds, things aren’t looking good. However, an Electoral College projection reveals that the race is still up in the air.
I used the 2004 Election as a baseline, but gave Latino candidate Santos the Red states most likely to flip: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico. I faced a problem with Ohio, Florida, and Texas: Florida has a large latin population but much of that is Cuban, and the state has been trending Republican; Texas is Santos’s home state but is very solid Republican, Ohio was narrow Bush in ’04 but has a small latin community. In the end I gave Texas to Santos while keeping Ohio and Florida Red.
The election is still undecided
Vinick is a long-serving Senator from California, and his secular views may win poitns in the Bear Flag Republic. It would be astonishing to have a popular Santos landslide and still have a very late election night, as the Golden State’s returns come in.
PS: Yes this is TV’s West Wing election. Yes I’m going through political withdrawal. Why can’t there be Presidential elections every year?