Increased 4GWS1, Political Effort Against Distant Enemy

Bomb attacks on the rise as ‘New Baath party’ is born,” by Patrick Cockburn in Baghdad, The Independent, 3 May 2005, http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=635173 (from Democratic Underground).

Give the enemy credit where credit is due…

After earlier catastrophic defeats, anti-Iraqi forces are consentrating on an intense form of 4GWS1.

The bombings in the past week underline that the insurgents have lost none of their ability to carry out attacks, almost always without regard for civilian casualties, all over Iraq. In the three months since the elections on 30 January there was a drop in American losses which led to official optimism that the guerrilla war was on the wane.

There has been an increase in the number of assassination attempts against Iraqi senior security officers based on precise intelligence about their movements. A bomb yesterday slightly wounded Major-General Fuleih Rasheed, the commander of a police commando unit linked to the interior ministry, and two of his men in the Huriya district of northwest Baghdad. The bomb exploded as Maj-Gen Rasheed’s convoy raced past the point.

A third bomb in Baghdad in the Zayouna district killed two policemen and wounded 10 people.

Assassination and general terrorism is the first stage of fourth-generation war. It’s not necessarily a bad sign than the anti-Iraqis are still in the 1st stage: a 4G war can easily be decade long. But last April was definitely worse for us.

At the same time, the insurgents are trying to seperate their distant enemy (us) from their near enemy (the Iraqi government)

The insurgents are less interested in participation in the present government than in direct talks with the US, a timetable for the withdrawal of American forces and the right to rebuild the Baath party. In Sunni Arab towns and cities a so-called New Baath party is beginning to emerge and is said to be very well organised.

Removing American support for Iraqi’s democratic government would make the anti-Iraqi goal of killing everybody who opposes them that much easier. We must not let them win.

One thought on “Increased 4GWS1, Political Effort Against Distant Enemy”

  1. Hi Dan,

    It would seem that the 4GW strategic victory the U.S. pulled off with Iraq's election was to isolate the insurgency politically from the vast bulk of Iraq's population by getting an alignment of Kurds and Shiites.
    Tough to get out of stage I when most of the people despise you. Best they can hope for now is anarchy.

    On the other hand, history demonstrates that ferocious armed minorities – Khmer Rouge, Shining Path, the Hashishin cult of Assassins – can still manage to wreck havoc even in the face of popular disdain.

    They still need to be dug out and destroyed, man by man as they have no where else to go and the leadership, by and large, are “unsurrenderable” as former top Baathists and SSG monsters. They can't quit.

  2. Another great post, Mark. I don't think I have anything to add to it. So I will subtract from what I said instead 🙂

    I was going to start this comment with “I'm not sure what the best they hope for is.” That reminded me that there doesn't seem to be an ideology. Zarqawi sure has one, but he seems to be a small part of the violence (focusing more on spectacular/media-intensive efforts than run-of-the-mill bombings). If the insurgency does not have a goal, is this even a fourth generation war? Have we fallen through times, refighting the Indian wars against tribes that cannot articulate what they want?

    I don't know.

  3. ” If the insurgency does not have a goal, is this even a fourth generation war? “

    Good question.

    Not having a goal should also make it possible to peel off non-nutcase Sunnis from the insurgents when the former realize the grandiosity of their political demands on the new government could result in their utter ruin

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