Such messages are usually a call-to-arms, sort of top-down guidance to go forth and do your thing,” says Ayers. He says while Al Qaeda was “tightly organized” before the invasion of Afghanistan, the dispersal of members since has left a “confederation of groups that adhere to the same fundamental principles…. essentially they are functionally autonomous groups.”

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0805/p01s02-woiq.html

It doesn't sound much like they're capable of making and enforcing decisions. They're more like the ELF than the KGB. But they do fit your other two criteria.

Great observation! Hopefully, this is a sign that we are winning.

As I told my brother yesterday, al-Zawahiri saying “al Qaeda has changed from an organization to an idea” in 2005 might be like an escaped Nazi saying “The National-Socialist German Workers Party has changed from an organization to an idea” in 1945… not a sign of strength!

You already know what I think about this.