This is interesting, and I have written in comments to the post on my blog the possibility that Iran knows the effect that a free and independent Kurdistan will have on Turkey. The “independent Kurdistan” movement recognizes four regions of “occupied” Kurdistan: the north, south, east, and west. With the ascension of a free Southern Kurdistan, calls for idependence of “Northern Kurdistan” in Turkey will escalate. Iran may not be so worried about “East Kurdistan” forming within its borders.

The fact that Iran wishes for Iraq to serve as a node of influence in the region is not indicative of a U.S.-loving Ahmedinejad. I.e., we may have a common foe in the Sunnis, but that may not lead to a U.S.-Iran alliance. Yes, we could advocate such an alliance; but that seems to be wishful thinking, or an ideal that will not take hold for various reasons until much more chaos has occurred.

My “macabre calculus” is fact. I suppose we could speak of the murder of a handful of people as being a glorious and divine act in the service of those who have survived the turmoil in Iraq — but I'd rather not. And, I'm not speaking only of “collateral damage”, am including all the deaths that may occur over the next decade. I don't imagine I would call the murder of my nephew or cousin or whatever a trifling detail when Evil Saddam murdered so many: There you are speaking of statistics and implying that mass murder, because it includes the deaths of so many, is worse than regular murder. When, in fact, if an individual murder is nothing much, then a hundred thousand of those individual murders can't be considered all that bad.

Of course, whatever bloody path leads to a free, strong, and independent democratic Kurdistan will be laid at GWB's feet even while he insists that a democratic Kurdistan was his plan all along: y'know, we really went to Iraq to create democracies in the Middle East, so the ultimate trifurcation will count as a success if one corner or perhaps two corners of Iraq become a free democracy (except not for the benefit of all the dead Iraqis who will not experience free Kurdistan, free Shiastan, free Sunnistan, etc….)

Well, okay: no “Shiastan.” I mean, there's already Iran waiting to annex southern Iraq, and I'm sure that Ahmedinejad has probably taken the news of an independent Kurdistan as a signal to crack down on the Kurds which make up 7% of Iran's demographics. In fact, if the religious Shiites of Iraq are closely aligned with Iran, then I could see an eventual invasion of northern Iraq by southern Iraq with help from both Iran and Turkey. Or maybe I'm just dreaming.

Thank you for your comments, both here and on your blog [1]. I'll respond in both places, as appropriate.

There are strong parrellels between Iraq and South Africa. Both have traditionally been ruled by a Westernized minority with long, occasionally hostile, ties to the British (the Afrikaaners, the Sunni Arabs). Both saw their birth rates collapse as they enjoyed modern lifestyles, while the majoriy's population skyrocketed. Both experienced one party rule (the Nationalist Party, the Ba'ath Party). Both gained democracy because of the efforts of the Anglosphere.

But the while the Nationalists relinquished power peacefully, and left behind the richest country in Africa, the Ba'ath's apartheid ended violently, and left behind a shattered culture.

As I have written, we are seeing the bloody end of apartheid. [2]

When the South African majority began passing laws that were untolerable to the minority, the Afrikaaners did not fight back. They took what they could and left. Since democratization the Afrikaan share of the population has shrunk from roughly 15% to roughly 10%.

Those Iraqi Sunni Arabs who know better realize that the permanent loss of power in Iraq and a similar demograph collapse is their best case scenario. Those that believe Saddam's old lie that they were a majority merely believe that every election has been rigged, and if they can only get a fair election they will regain power.

I wonder how many who feel the Sunni Arab's pain also feel the Afrikaaner's pain?

The “perhaps two corners” of Iraq, the Kurds and the Shia, make about 85% of Iraq's population. Roughly the same fraction of South Africa that is black.

Both the Kurds and the Shia are natural allies of the Iranians. Iran is on very good terms with most domestic minorities. Like with Iraq a non-majority rules Iran (Persians make up about 49% of the population), but Iran has a much softer glove.

More likely than a Persian attempt to annex Southern Iraq is an Iranian-Iraqi commont front against Saudi Arabia. [3] Good. The Saudis are monsters [4]

Your macabre calculus, “all the dead Iraqis who will not experience free Kurdistan, free Shiastan, free Sunnistan, etc….,” fails to acknowledge the high ongoing death rate of Ba'athi rule.

Turkey will be quite as long as she is on the path to Europe.

[1] http://www.phaticcommunion.com/archives/2005/12/those_who_face.php
[2] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2004/12/08/the_open_air_prison.html
[3] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2005/02/15/iran_-_iraq_-_east_arabia.html
[4] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2005/03/03/religious_freedom_in_east_arabia_-_or_-_the_saudis_are_jerks.html

Current administration in DC is trying to hide this fact and advertising Northern Iraq as a democracy. Northern Iraq is not different than the one man regime of Essad in Syria. There is practically no difference between Barzani, Essad or Suud dynasty. For now Barzani is a good guy because he cooperates. Follow the case of Austrian citizen and Kurdish writer who is in the prison in Northern Iraq. He started to ask questions about the finance of the Barzani and look what happened…

One more thing Barzani clan makes money over smuggling through Turkish border. They depend on Turks 100% financially.

I agree a free Iraqi Kurdistan will put further pressure on the Turks to form a Turkish Kurdistan. Iran will be happy to just manage the situation, though, as it manages Baluchis, Azeris, and Armenians within her boders.

I agree that Ahmeninejad doesn't love the US — and he doesn't have to. The same real logic that pushed China and America together pushes Iran and America together. That Iran also has natural ties to China, as does America, just knits the fabric tighter. Iran is the natural deputy for America in the gulf, and will be replaying that role in the future (hopefully sooner rather than later).

Your macabre calculus is wrong because you count the loses of the Iraq War (the individual casualities which are its downstream effects) but not the net-gains (those who were not murdered by the Saddamite tyranny). If individual murder is anything, then a calculus should favor a result which minimizes it compared to the status quo.

Hudai,

I'm not sure of your criticism. Are you saying that tribal societies are by definition incapable of democracy, or that the KDP-PUK run a two-party dictatorship by violent means?

I never had a course in calculus. Heh. But treating human life as a statistic doesn't seem likely to lead to a moral victory…I am not a puritan pacifist; it's just that I take the view of the Tao Te Ching: that one should go to war as if one is going to a funeral. It should be solemn, and not a festival with banquets, back-patting, and bands playing.