Turkey-in-Europe, or Turks out of Europe?

What Will Europe Really Do?,” by Victor Davis Hanson, 14 February 2006, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-2_14_06_VDH.html (from PowerLine Blog).

Cartoons: Against Solana,” by Andrew Stuttaford, The Corner, 15 February 2006, http://corner.nationalreview.com/06_02_12_corner-archive.asp#090123.

Question for PNM Theorists,” by Jeff, Caerdroia, 15 February 2006, http://www.caerdroia.org/blog/archives/2006/02/question_for_pn.html.

Female Reporter Stoned at Turkish Cartoon Protest,” by GP, Gateway Pundit, 16 February 2006, http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2006/02/female-reporter-stoned-at-turkish.html (from Instapundit).

This is a hard post to write.

byzantine_and_ottoman_empires_md

It is no longer clear to me that Turkey belongs in Europe.


Pharisee-style violence in Turkey

Aliye Cetinkaya, a journalist from the Turkish daily Sabah newspaper, who was reporting on the recent protests over the offensive caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed, was stoned in Konya for reasons demonstrators said were provocative – as she did not cover her head. Cetinkaya was taken away by male colleagues after stones hit her head and shoulders. The female journalist was attacked for being ‘sexually provocative’ for not wearing a head scarf at the demonstration organised by the Peoples Education Research and Support Group in Konya (He-Da-Der) and entitled ‘Loyalty to the Prophet’.

A group of protesters insisted that Aliye Cetinkaya get off the bus where she was reporting the march, as they claimed she was provoking the crowd. At this moment, somebody started reciting the Koran into a microphone.

Approximately 30 people then started throwing stones at Cetinkaya, seated with her legs dangling from the back of the vehicle and taking notes. They claimed that her clothes and way of sitting was inappropriate while the Koran was being read, and shouted words of abuse at her.

with Pharisee-style hypocrisy

One of the groups in the demonstration, the Islamist “Association for Training, Research and Cooperation of the People” (HEDA-DER) meanwhile filed a complaint against Cetinkaya the same day, accusing her of disturbing the demonstration, an offence that carries a fine or between 18 months and three years imprisonment under a 1983 law on public demonstrations.

while Turkey’s Prime Minister shoots his nation in the foot:

“Today, however, the VVD leader questioned whether Turkey should be allowed into the EU, given the reaction of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the Danish cartoons. Mr Erdogan had called the cartoons “insulting” and demanded that legal action be taken against the cartoonists and the publishers. “If this is the way he thinks and if he is going to give us lessons, then it will be very difficult for Turkey to join the EU,” the VVD leader says in an interview with the Dutch weekly Elsevier. He also criticized the visits this week of Ben Bot, the Dutch Foreign Minister, to Saudi-Arabia and Qatar. Mr van Aartsen does not see the point of visiting these countries at the moment.”

Dead right.

Even Victor Davis Hanson thinks Turkey-in-Europe now lies dead dreaming

Europe will still talk about bringing Turkey into the fold of the West, but de facto is horrified at the thought that millions of a religion that empowers so many to go berserk over a few cartoons might soon comprise the most populous nation of Europe. I doubt any European diplomat will invest any political capital at all in restarting in earnest Turkish/European Union talks.

As Jeff from Caerdroia wonders how this effects globalization generally:

How does PNM handle the collapse or approaching collapse of rulesets in core nations? The flow of people from the gap to the core is inherently going to bring gap rulesets — those travel in people’s heads, after all — and this is already apparent in Britain, France, Spain, Italy, the Low Countries, Denmark and Norway. I suspect we’ll see the same in Germany, soon, because they have the same demography/immigrant problem as the rest of Western Europe.

Once the gap rulesets have been imported into the core, can the core rulesets remain established, or are the core rulesets inherently self-defeating? And if they are inherently self-defeating, at least when confronted with a lower-order ruleset from the gap, what changes to the core rulesets (and hopefully there are some short of mass deportation or genocide) can be made to avert the consequences of a core ruleset collapse (the main consequence being moving from the core to the gap)?

There are four main reasons to support Turkey’s accession to the European Union

1. Turkey, as a center of Greco-Roman civilization, is inherently Western

turkey_hadrians_gate_md

2. Turkey, as a full Cold War ally, deserves it

turkey_cold_war

3. Turkey, as a low-wage country, will help jump-start the European economy

turish_workers_md

4. Turkey, as a majority Muslim country, can be a beachhead int he Global War on Terror,

istanbul_bridge_md

To deal with these in turn,

1. Muslim countries lost their Roman roots by abandoning italic laws and adopting the Sharia
2. Ukraine was a Cold-War enemy. The past is past. The future is now.
3. Europe, as even acknowledges, is a high-unemployment continent. Europe has structural problems that premature immigration may only excacerbate
4. Europe, as a majority Christian county, can be a beachhead for them in the Global War on Terror.

I have Turkish friends and Turkish relatives. I have traditionally supported Turkey’s membership in the European Union. But not if it will drag 25 other European states down.

That’s not progress. That’s continental suicide.

OODA-PISRR, Part III: Formless Fast Transients

This is your waveform

waveform_md

This is your waveform on fast transients

waveform_fast_md

Any questions?


begins his epic briefing, , describing the need for fast transients:

In other words, suggests a fighter that can pick and choose engagement opportunities—yet has fast transient (“buttonhook”) characteristics that can be used to either force an overshoot by an attacker or stay inside a hard turning defender.

Yet while mere fast cycling is important.

Idea of fast transients suggests that, in order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries—

A better strategy is to aim for getting inside the enemy’s head

or, better yet, get inside adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle or loop.

The purpose is to hide the form of the fighter, creating a confusing, menacing, ambiguous, unpredictable disorder

Why? Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries—since our adversaries will be unable to generate mental images or pictures that agree with the menacing as well as faster transient rhythm or patterns they are competing against.

This is not simple optimization for speed. If a fighter wanted to optimize for speed, he would merely practice his routines so he could act without thinking (bypassing decision in the OODA loop) and rope-a-dope when attacked (so one can bypass subversion in the PISRR loop). His cognition loop would then be:

ooda_pisrr_15
The Fast Fighting Machine: Non-Deciding, Non-Developing

Rather, this is optimizing for formlessness.

The OODA-PISRR cycle, the Social Cognition Loop, was previously displayed as a circuit:

ooda_pisrr_14

It could also be shown to be a wave with a unique form

waveform_one
Vertical Axis is kinetic Energy, Horizontal Axis is Time

All merely going faster would be do is decrease the cycle-time of the waveform. It would definitely be menacing to face an enemy going fast. But not confusing, ambiguous, or unpredictable.

waveform_faster_md

Fast transients rely on appropriate use of Decision and Subversion to get inside the enemy’s cognition loop and make your waveform disappear.

As John Boyd said in Patterns of Conflict, describing the Mongol Horde:

By exploiting superior leadership, intelligence, communications, and mobility as well as by playing upon adversary’s fears and doubts via propaganda and terror, Mongols operated inside adversary observation-orientation-decision-action loops.

In a similar way, by exploiting decision and subversion, the winner operates into the enemy’s cognition loop.

As Chet Richards quoted Sun Tzu in Riding the Tiger (previously featured on tdaxp):

Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness;
Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness;
Thereby you can be the director of the opponent’s fate.

Victory with OODA is not just going fast, its using decision and subversion to deprive the enemy of the patterns needed to detect you. By acting in ways that are incoherent to one’s enemy’s, one’s waveform becomes confusing, menacing, ambiguous and unpredictable

One reaction is to create what Boyd called “many non-cooperative centers of gravity” in the enemy, making his waveform disappear too. But while the winner’s waveform is merely apparently chaotic, the enemy’s waveform is chaotic.

Next, the enemy ceases cycling, paralyzing him in one cognitive state. Visually

waveform_victim_md

Of course, not all transients are fast. Until they are.


OODA-PISRR, a tdaxp series in four parts
1. The Social Cognition Loop
2. The PISRR Cognition Loop
3. Formless Fast Transients
4. System Perturbations

And the Seventh Seal breaketh…

a tdaxp Special Report by “Aaron”

aaron
Aaron is a Noted Beacon of Non-Partisan Sanity

Well, a month and ten days after the invitation was extended, I decide to sully TDAXP with my presence. I’m posting in the category “Democrats,” although by rights I think I ought to make a completely new TDAXP category, say perhaps “Eat Your Fishheads” or “Things You Know are Right (Left),” but I’ll tamper with Google rank later. TDAXP has put a lot of work into his setup and I wouldn’t want to jeopardize it. Did you know it is Google Search #1 for “polar bear fetish”? Go ahead, look it up. That doesn’t happen by accident.

Anways, enough chicanery. I’ve nearly posted two or three times on various topics since Dan’s invitation to blog, but kept stopping short for fear of not enough time or not enough research to do the topic justice. So, to finally quiet him up about not publishing, and to hopefully stave off another reminder that my own precious “blog” (http://aaron.groundrocket.org) is down, I’m going to pseudo post and do better the next time. Here we go.


A Lot of People Supporting Tom Daschle… In Iowa – Daschle has been all over IA in recent months. He spoke at the annual Democrat’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in November and spoke again at the beginning of this month at the University of Iowa at Ames. Then, just a few days ago, went to bat for IA Governor-hopeful Chet Culver, stating “Chet is in the strongest position to be the next governor.” Why so much time in Iowa when more money could be picked up courting wealthy donors in much bluer states? Naturally, one assumes Presidential aspirations. But why no visits to New Hampshire?

John McCain – Our next president is spending a lot of time getting his name in the news on inconsequential matters. What does John McCain know about ‘ala carte’ cable television? Why does he get in a pseudo-partisan fight with Democrat wunderkind Barack Obama over how to best approach a bipartisan call for lobbying reform? Is any press good press in a Republican primary that thus far seems to be winnable on name recognition?

Abortion in South Dakota – Roger Hunt of Brandon and a number of his colleagues are sealing their political doom during our current legislative session. Another ban on abortion in this state has passed through the legislature by a large margin. This time it does contain a provision for a mother’s threatened life. Governor Rounds will likely sign. There will no doubt be a number of costly legal battles, but at least some lawyers will get rich at South Dakota taxpayer expense. Why bother ending this fight, Hunt, et al? What will you campaign on in the next election? Fiscal responsibility? Your party gave that up with Bush. Devotion to agriculture? Bush and Thune want unprofitable farming stricken from South Dakota’s subsidies list. Family values? South Dakota doesn’t care about families, only the unborn. Families are welcome to be torn apart by legal gambling, alcoholism, domestic violence, etc. as long as all children, wanted or unwanted, get a chance to grow up on the Reservation or the slums of Sioux Falls. South Dakota Republicans won the Events Center battle (rightly so) but their turnouts are going to fall dramatically if they don’t have the Pro-Life zealots holding candlelight vigils before every election.

Finally, some self-serving observation. South Dakota is about to pass a Transportation Bill that declassifies bicycles and horses as vehicles. The local news, then national, then Fark.com all came to the ( ridiculous ) conclusion that this was to allow our hillbilly ( and fit? ) alcoholics to find their way home without resorting to driving under the influence. The unintended consequence, which I believe the lawmakers have not thought through, is to endanger the rights of cyclists and equestrians on public highways. I am concerned that losing status as an automobile will place any liability for traffic accidents not on the at-fault party, but on the cyclist or horse rider. I will be very melancholy the day ( imagine Republican sneer ) “some lawyer” gets a reckless, inattentive, or just plain ignorant asshole off after he kills some bicyclist training for the Tour de Kota.

Well, I thought you could all use a break from Dan’s homework. Thanks for listening. I’ll rant more later.