Earlier, after terrorists exported trouble from Pakistan to India, I urged readers to view the event through PNM Theory and particularly the PNM/tdaxp synthesis that sees the world divided into several zones
1. The Old Core (North America, Western Europe, Japan)
2. The New Core (Brazil, India, China, etc)
3. The Seam (Cuba, South Africa, Philippines, etc.)
4. The Non-Integrating Gap (Congo, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc)
The higher your country up in this list, the nicer your citizens’ lives are, the less likely they are to die of starvation, the less likely your women are likely to be raped as a tool of warfare, the less likely your child will die of starvation. All in all, it’s fantastic to be born in the Old Core, pretty good to be born in the New Core, somewhat acceptable to be born in the Seam, and a Hobbesian nightmare in the Gap.
A State in the Hobbesian Gap
Part of the Terror of the Gap is that it exports terrorism, death, and disease from the Gap to the Seam and the Core. Lebanon’s Civil War’s envelopment of Israel is yet another example of this example. We are not seeing in Lebanon “collective punishment” or a “lethal care wreck.” We are seeing something that has always existed in the world: the attempted destruction of the good by the bad. Lebanon’s export of violence and death to Israel is analogous to Afghanistan’s export of violence and death to America, or any of the other recent acts of terrorism against civilized countries.
Fortunately, the success of global capitalism teaches us how this will end: the spread of the Core to the four corners of the world, and the eradication of war as we know it. Between now and that end of history good decisions can be made, and the nature of that final peace can be tweaked this way and that. Much work is to be done, and billions of lives hang in the balance.
Yet when we see specific cases like the current Lebanon-Israel conflict, we know what’s going on: the Gap is exporting violence to the Core. If you want a true end to this mess, don’t worry about shuttle diplomacy and magic bullets. Instead: Shrink the Gap, primarily through structural economic and security connectivity.