“More Iranian experts calling on Bush to deal from the baseline that Iran’s getting the bomb,” by Thomas Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog, 7 August 2006, http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/archives2/003548.html.
Iraq is a state in the deepest part of the gap. We should be firewalling ourselves off from the Gap’s violence. We should be increasing the instability in the Gap (to change their system) while increasing the stability of the Core (to preserve our system). We should realize that attempts to superimpose the legal structure of the Core in an imaginary state surrounded in the Gap
By remaining in Iraq, our foreign policy is at the mercy of Iran’s kind graces. As long as we are in Iraq, we can only do what Iran wants us to do: unless we are willing to put American in a trap worthy of the French in Indochina
However invincible the military of the worldâ€™s only superpower might seem, every army has its weak spot. Historically, it centers on logistics, the supply line tail that wags the dog. From Hannibal to Erwin Rommel, from Robert E. Lee to Kim Il Sung in 1950, itâ€™s been ever thus.
The lifeline for American forces in Iraq is a 400-plus-mile main supply route that runs from Kuwait through Shia-dominated and Iranian-infiltrated southern Iraq to Baghdad and points north and west.
Along that route, trucks and tankers driven by third-country nationals â€” Turks, Pakistanis and others â€” haul 95 percent of the beans and bullets for our troops and 100 percent of the fuel that our tanks and Bradleys and Humvees gulp at staggering rates.
Thereâ€™s another strategic vulnerability farther up the chain: Supplies for our forces must first reach the main port in Kuwait by ships â€” ships that must transit the Strait of Hormuz past a gantlet of Iranian Silkworm anti-ship missiles and suicide torpedo boats.
Little wonder, then, that Iran and its ayatollahs have the nerve to thumb their noses at efforts to curtail their nuclear ambitions and to supply thousands of short- and medium-range missiles to their Hezbollah proteges in Lebanon.
Tom Barnett has written similar things in the future:
Again, this is what I warned about back in early 2005 in Esquire: we either get off the WMD focus or Iran would veto our efforts at peace throughout the region. Now that Iran’s gone through with that obvious threat, taking advantage of the unleashed Shiite minorities’s anger throughout the region (the main byproduct of the Big Bang), a lot of people who had a hard time with such arguments back then are basically repeating them now.
The way out is to leave Iraq. We know that Iraqis – even Iraqis who do not like us — will kill Baathist and Qaedists on their own. Increasingly, our misguided attempts to move up Iraq just amount to subverting the democratic Iraqi government’s attempts to defear our mutual enemies. The best plan is to leave Iraq, recovery our foreign policy from the Iranian Mullahs, and continue winning the Global War on Terrorism.