Sudan: 18.7 years
Somalia: 17.6 years
Zimbabwe: 20.1 years
Chad: 16.3 years
Ivory Coast: 19.3 years
Congo: 16.7 years
Guinea: 17.7 years
Central African Republic: 18.5 years
Uganda: 14.9 years
Nigeria: 18.7 years

U.S.: 36.6 years
China: 33.2 years
Japan: 43.5 years
India: 24.8 years

— fact is, much of the population of the worst states *is* near 12-years old or below!

The continuing failure of the states should be thought of in terms of wisdom/life experience rather than intelligence. How many 17 year olds in America could form a stable state from the wilderness when so many of their compatriots are also about 17 years old or younger?

I also suspect that the emergence of GGish gangstas is enabled by the low median age for these states. E.g., recently in a smallish town nearby my home, two small groups of teens recently met in a secluded park for a pre-arranged fight; only, one group brought baseball bats and a member of the other group ended up dead. Now imagine that happening on a broader scale.

Furthermore, the generational divides within these states are probably more asymmetric, with the older members at the head of established ruling parties, sometimes using the younger members of the state and sometimes having to fend them off. The generational disparity, combined perhaps with asymmetric technologies or asymmetric access to infrastructure and weaponry, might also promote an indirect systempunkt attack approach. Dunno, really.

Hmmm…Should this be correlated with the average age of the populations? Civil wars, etc., tend to raise the ratio of children to adults, I think. Plus, this goes to something I've often thought: that ignorance is born every day. I.e., every human comes to the planet quite ignorant; thus, a failure to educate only perpetrates the sort of reduction in “operational” intelligence you have isolated.

The IQ test adjusts for age — it can be thought of as mental age / physical age. Therefore, if adults are acting as intelligent as 12 year olds, 12 year olds are duller still…

I deleted a paragraph on possible causes of the low IQs because it distracted from my main theme. Obviously many factors can help to perpetuate low IQs. Global guerrillas is just a factor that doesn't need to be added anywhere in the equation.

Love your stuff tdaxp. Keep up the great work.

I agree.

My point is that the global-guerrillas-theoretical-infrastructure is not required to understand what keeps states hollows. Robb's theory multiplies variables unnecessary.

Steve,

Robb's a pretty bright guy, and while I've never interacted with Kilcullen I imagine the same is true of him.

A criticism is better written like this: “Those theoriests make unnecessarily complex theories.”

“It is just manipulation of the media by 5GW forces in our government.”

Could you explain?

However, GGs might be thought of as a continuation or escalation of the failed-state dynamic, preventing fixes to the other problems which preceded the emergence of GGs.

To the degree that they are merely a late-term emergence, they must either burn themselves out when they *hollow* the localized system to the point of suicide, or else, in order to survive such impending ultimate collapse, they might need to turn their eyes outward if they're able.

The age issues is really interesting. If a low median age is one of the requirements for the emergence of some types of GGs, this might go to explain the failure to see that their own activities may be suicidal. Youngsters do not plan well for the future.

Unnecessarily complex theories. Right on. That Barnett is pretty complex too, he is out to lunch with Kilcullen and Robb. Just a bunch of warmongers that don't understand that things haven't changed.

Explain? The real reason we are at war is because we are being manipulated by Bush and Cheney into thinking we are. We are not at war.

A clear definition of global guerrillas would help the debate immensely — but I don't think Robb ever provided one. My second working definition [1] meshes with everything he says, but obviously something from him would be even better.

Young males tend to be less risk- and work- averse than other cohorts, so there's presence means lots of creativity/destruction. However, the low average IQ would push this closer to the “destruction” side.

That said, their poverty would make them even less likely to be altruists. Robb's gg's don't seek to become the government or influence government policies, but this cohort would be very likely to be greedy (maximizing access to wealth, women, etc.).

Steve,

Thanks for the quick response!

I agree with you on Robb, have no opinion on Kilcullen, but disagree with Barnett. He's a pretty straightforward economic-determinist, and most of what he says flows from the idea that people are income-maximizing when given the ability to do so. Further, he's a precise writer, and that allows his theories to be tested. [2]

Presumably, if the President attacks a country, that makes us at war, whether we were before or not!

[1] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2007/02/05/working-definition-of-global-guerrillas-try-2.html
[2] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2006/05/08/redefining-the-gap-1-prologue.html