Who will fight the African Wars?on July 22, 2007 at 12:00 am
The following three statements are true:
- People prefer to have a job done by locals incompetently than by outsiders competently
- Economic growth and foreign-direct investment depend on competent basic services, such as security
- Intelligence, along with economic system, are the pest predictors for the social competence of a country
These three facts mean we only need to look at a table of comparative national intelligence. The results are unsurprising to those who know about the Afro-Islamic Gap: intelligence scores in Africa are two standard deviations below those in the west.
Even assuming that nutritional and educational levels in sub-Saharan Africa could be brought up to Western standards immediately, there still would be a long lag until sub-Saharan intelligence reaches western levels and a difference may survive even then. It is reasonable to expect that social services, such as security, would be provided incompetently by the resulting local governments.
The obvious solution is to use military-industrial-complex-enabled uniformed service to help provide security, but the drawbacks of these are obvious. Adrian Martin of Politics and Soccer outlined just a few, in including “dependency, blowback, corruption, weaponization, and non-scalability.”
To summarize: the low national intelligence of sub-Saharan African nations implies that outside provides of social services will be needed, but history teaches us that outside providers of social services causes problems.
The way forward: Connecting sub-Saharan Africa to the global economy, providing a minimum level of civilization in order to end Africa’s export of disease and misery to the rest of the world, is not an easy task. Leaving the job to the locals is genocidally wrong-headed. The most likely future is a form of Asian resource imperialism supported by American force. The question then becomes how heavy the world’s footprint should be. Too light, and the 2nd half of the twentieth century just repeats,l over and over and over. Too heavy, and sub-Saharan Africa returns to colonialism.
In other words, “too light” and nothing changes, “too heavy” is better than now, and “just right” might actually shrink the gap!