Excellent point on the lack of civil institutions in China.

The strength and focus of the Chinese Red Cross during the recent Wenchuan Earthquake is a good sign, but much needs to be done.

Larry,

Brilliant conceptualization of corruption as higher-voltage subnets!

Beijing deserves to be rebuked from time to time — but doing so through diplomatic channels doesn't empower their military faction, and getswhat we really believe across. (Say, releasing photos of the meeting with the Dalai Lama, rather than sending another air craft carrier to the Taiwan Straits, in reaction to not allowing the Kitty Hawk sailors to visit Hong Kong.)

[1] http://dni2.wordpress.com/2007/12/07/a-prisoner-to-primacy/

That is precisely the reason why there would not be a global war. No one is stupid enough to ruin the international economic order that has taken decades to build. The world economy was vastly different in World War I. Now, if the US or China entered into a war both economies would be on the verge of collapse – in WWI if US and Germany fought not as many suffered because of a loss of trade.

Still waiting for a colonialism example being ended because of America influence….

http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2006/07/06/conventional-defensive-thinking-from-taiwan.html

You wrote:

A much smarter policy would combine unconventional warfare and Taiwan's science and engineering infrastructure. Taiwan should build nuclear weaponry, and deploy bomb-wielding commando teams to the Pearl River Delta, Shanghai, and Tianjin, and Beijing.

China may rationally calculate that in a first strike, she can prevent Taiwan from launching her missiles in defense. But if nomadic nuclear Taiwanese patriots were in position in critical parts of China, Beijing would not tempt invasion.

Defend democracy. Think different.

I winced when I read the above. I have worked with really smart people for 20 years and I often see the leaders make dumb decisions…even destructive decisions.

I do agree with the idea of non-military rebuking. Occasionally shaming/ridiculing PRC leaders on the world stage could be as effective as moving around carrier strike groups. This would be an information warfare capability. The US really sucks at this. If you only have a hammer, all problems seem to resemble nails…

Such an occurrance would be the kind of black swan that Nassim Taleb speaks of in his book: “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”

Part of Taleb's thesis is that such black swans aren't predictable, but can be planned for.

I'm not sure if I agree with Dan's thesis that China acts as an agent of the Core in the Gap (though I'd like to think so). However, I whole-heartily agree with his prescription for hedging.
Keep in mind also that the Party, which most directly benefits from trade, doesn't completely control the PLA (which cares less about trade, despite its large economic profile).

http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1197134015&sr=8-1

Plenty of smart people have done stupid things in this world.

“The world economy was vastly different in World War I”

I grant you that supply and production chains are more globalized now, but that doesn't change the reality that countries do desperate things when they are stressed. Japan attacked the US, Argentina attacked the UK, Britain attacked Germany, etc.

“Now, if the US or China entered into a war both economies would be on the verge of collapse – in WWI if US and Germany fought not as many suffered because of a loss of trade.”

Well, there was Britain's starvation blockade of Germany….

Considering what countries will go through in order to win, saying that there could not be a Sino-American War because of a drop in GDP — when great powers have sacrificed much more for much less — seems wrong.

“Still waiting for a colonialism example being ended because of America influence….”

I like Lexington's examples, but you might compare the Boer Wars (Britain and friends subdue the Boar Republics, America doesn't care) against the Suez Crisis (Britain and friends attempt to subdue an Arab Republic, Egypt wins.)

Unless you don't believe that Anglo-Franco-Israeli intervention in Egypt was a form of “colonialism”? Or that the Boer Wars weren't (either?)?