Vote Democratic Progressive Party
on March 20, 2008 at 5:36 am and modified on March 20, 2008. at 7:50 amUntil the Taiwan Crisis I was hoping that the Chinese National Party (KMT) prevailed in the Taiwanese elections. Eight years of the Taiwanese Nationalist “Democratic Progressive Party” (DPP) had helped China “grow up” as it came to Taiwanese-Chinese relations. It appeared that Beijing knew the best approach to take if she wanted her one-country-two-systems policy to come to pass. Plus, DPP was increasingly desperate, and bringing up non-issues (the KMT candidate has a US green card) in its attempt to shore up votes.
However, the Tibet Riots have thrown light on how China’s actual “One Country Two Systems” policy with certain provinces actually work. The Tibetan Protesters are helping the world embarrass China for actions that are not appropriate for a Great Power. A DPP victory, or at least a crippled KMT win, would further embarrass the Communist party.
China Tensions Sway Taiwan Election – New York Times
China’s suppression of protests in Tibet and missteps by the opposition Nationalist Party have made the Taiwanese presidential election on Saturday an unexpectedly close race. What once seemed to be an insuperable lead for the Nationalist candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, has narrowed considerably, politicians and political analysts said.A narrow victory for Mr. Ma would give him a weaker mandate for his goal of closer economic relations with mainland China. An actual defeat for Mr. Ma, now a possibility although not yet the most likely outcome, would be a serious setback for Beijing officials, who have cultivated relations with the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, over the past four years.
Mainland Chinese officials loathe Taiwan’s current president, Chen Shui-bian, and his party, the Democratic Progressive Party, for pursuing greater political separation from the mainland. Beijing has been wary of the party’s candidate, Frank Hsieh, even though Mr. Hsieh has repeatedly voiced much more willingness than Mr. Chen to allow increased Taiwanese investment on the mainland and more cross-straits transportation links.
If Mr. Hsieh were to win, it could be perceived in Beijing as a high price to have paid for forcefully putting down demonstrations in Tibet.
For Taiwan, for Tibet, for China, and for the future: Vote DPP.
Even the KMT has come more to the center in terms of China-Taiwan relations and a KMT win would be favorable to the Beijing government, but would not materially move them any closer to a one country, two systems outcome. A DPP win works best only as an embarrassment.
As for the Tibet riots, I feel sympathy for the Tibetans, but the attacking of Han businesses and the of Han and Hui people does nothing to endear outsiders to them.
I think the Chinese leadership may be starting to understand what they have bitten off in hosting an Olympics. It will be curious to see how they treat foreign activists who ‘sneak’ into the country to unfurl banners of protest near Olympic venues. The more a police presence and the rougher these people are treated, the worse China looks. Yet, letting them be and sniffing at them as insulting the ‘spirit of the games’ does not seem to be in the Chinese playbook.
Just keep in mind that embarrassing China may also work to embarrassing and anger the Chinese citizens, who will rally ’round the flag at the actions of foreigners.
The Economist has a great article on the matter. KMT’s “Greater China Market” idea definitely moves the countries closer to reunification, if in a wise way.
But more broadly, there’s the general idea of how the world can help “mentor” China. Certainly, good actions should be met with good outcomes, and bad actions should be met with bad outcomes. Intermediate forms of rebuke, such as boycotts of the Opening Ceremonies and a DPP win, would be good for China.
[1] http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10903489&top_story=1
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