Who will be deputized to tell Obama that it’s time to quit? And when?

He’s behind in the popular vote, whether you count the elections in all 50 states, or merely those contests where votes were cast (as opposed to caucuses). (Obviously, if you exclude states that voted in a time that Howard Dean didn’t like, or go by the racially discriminatory “pledged delegate count,” Obama’s still ahead.)

Obama and the National Anthem

How much farther behind Hillary Clinton does Obama have to fall before the DNC asks him to step aside, in the interests of their party’s ideals?

20 thoughts on “Who will be deputized to tell Obama that it’s time to quit? And when?”

  1. Dude, not like I’m an Obama guy, but isn’t this getting excessive now? I know it’s silly season and all, but damn. Make with the 4th and 5th gen warfare already. ;)

  2. Haha!

    A long day of work + driving left my brain little room for actual analysis, so this was more of a thought experiment… MSNBC (which is solidly pro-Obama) has been asking the reverse question for about a month, so I thought the q. of who would eventually tell Obama that he can’t democratically win in the democratic party to be interesting.

    Of course, he might regain the lead.

    The point re: pledged delegates is a serious one, though.

  3. Ah yes, we can tell this lacks any actual analysis.

    – Obama leads in the pledged delegates and she has no way to catch up.

    – She does not lead the popular vote, why are you adopting her talking points? You can’t count Michigan (and no one will) because he wasn’t even on the ballot there. That’s not democratic.

    – He is going to crush her in North Carolina by 10-15 points, thereby eliminating any popular vote fantasies she may have had. Voter registration is at record levels and most of it is from college students, liberals in the Triangle and veterans in the East who have no love for Clinton. How do I know this? Well I was registering voters for Obama & McCain while jobless in January and the numbers were staggering then and they are even more so now.

    – As Elizabeth Drew points out (1), the rush of super delegates from the House is still going Obama’s way because he’s less of a downer on the ticket than HRC.

    – Lastly, the media has jumped on the HRC bandwagon because they can still make money off this primary for the next 6-8 weeks and intend to do so to the fullest by hyping the drama when in actuality there is little of it. The only drama is how low can the Clintons go? Bill may need to be evaluated after that lie about not claiming the Obamas pulled the race card on him after he was on a radio show the day before telling white voters in PA that’s exactly what the Obamas did.

    In summation, “stop the drama, vote Obama”. And let’s get onto the general so John McCain can build a new coalition of working class whites, conservatives and most independents to victory (Unless Iraq goes to crap) and Obama can try to see if the coalition of minorities, youth, liberals and Western independents can somehow trump McCain’s.

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9862.html

  4. A more relevant and interesting question is how the hell will the Democrats get HRC out of the race after June even with Obama’s lead in delegates, the popular vote and (by then) superdelegates? She is on a kamikaze mission.

    Al Gore may be the only man left to end this.

  5. Why on earth does anyone bring out Al Gore? Obama seems to be much more popular amongst democrats on his worst day than Al Gore on his best.

    And Dan, Obama is winning the game under the rules as written, why would he concede?

  6. “Al Gore may be the only man left to end this.”

    Oh my. I almost did a spit take.

    The Goracle is too busy fighting (and profiting from) ManBearPig.

    I think it would be funny for him to weep in as the savior of the dems though.

    Note: I voted for him in 2000.

    His disgraceful actions at that time and his turn into lefty lunacy (exposing the true Al Gore) have made me glad he ws not elected.

  7. Well I mean that he remains the only uncommitted Dem able to muster respect throughout much of the party to tell the Clinton Mafia the game is up and they not dare to incur his wrath as the “martyr” of the party. Remember, much, much more than small town Americans, Democrats are quite bitter over 2000 to this day!

    In a way that is one reason why I want Obama as the Democrat nominee, if anything because he isn’t as batshit crazy as the Clintons or the far-left fringes. And he actually has class at times. He managed to say McCain would be a better president than George Bush… something HRC couldn’t bring herself to say… (well that week, a few weeks before McCain would be a better president than Obama in her mind).

    Progress…..

  8. The only way that the Democratic Party establishment (the Superdelegates) are going to give the nomination to Hillary Clinton is if his negatives threaten Democrats in down ticket elections. Even if the Oracle of Delphi and every pollster in America provides a gold plated guarantee that Obama will lose the election if nominated, the Superdelegates will still make him the nominee.

    That is because to do otherwise will incur the wrath of black voters and Democrats cannot win many races without a heavy turn out of Blacks voting nine to one Democrat.

    Dick Morris once listed the predictors of party affiliation that he relied on in polling. The best predictor of party is race. Black voters are overwhelmingly Democrats. Other good predictors are: church attendance more than twice a month is strongly correlated with voting Republican, gun ownership is heavily correlated with voting Republican (the more guns owned, the more likely to vote Republican) and viewing of pornography which is correlated with voting Democrat.

  9. The other key would be the young voters… registering in record numbers and passionately for Obama. Losing them would be as bad as losing the black vote.

    Here in NC the student vote at our more than 25 odd schools could shatter old records. I have been stunned at the organization of the various campus Obama chapters in Greensboro, WInston-Salem, Charlotte, Raleigh & Chapel Hill.

  10. Eddie,

    - Obama leads in the pledged delegates and she has no way to catch up.

    Clearly Obama is in the lead in pledged delegates. That it looks like the Democratic base will adopt this line is ironic, as there were fits & howls after Bush lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote. Now, I’m sure there were many Democrats who were thrilled when Gore announced he would respect the will of the Electors, but more seem to be “bitter.”

    - She does not lead the popular vote, why are you adopting her talking points?

    Well, she does.

    Fifty state democratic parties ran either caucuses or primaries, and whether you use the vote from the more democratic primaries, or use that plus the estimated participation in the caucuses, Hillary comes out ahead.

    That the Democratic National Committee granted Michigan and Florida zero delegates obviously effects the pledged delegate counts. It doesn’t remove the popular vote, however.

    (Of course, in the Democratic Party, like the Electoral College, the popular vote is meaningless.)

    You can’t count Michigan (and no one will) because he wasn’t even on the ballot there. That’s not democratic.

    Obama wisely chose not to participate in Michigan and Florida, as at the time he was an insurgent candidate and believed he could not win in politics above the retail level. Of course, now he recognizes that Hillary’s base of uneducated whites, latinos, and jews would make it difficult for him to win in those states, and so does not want new elections. This was smart by him.

    However, it raises a question: if we’re not counting racse that one candidate withdrew from, should Clinton have withdrawn from the Illinois race? Should she try to get her name off the Oregon or North Carolina ballots? In the general election, should McCain not appear on the California or New York ballots?

    He is going to crush her in North Carolina by 10-15 points, thereby eliminating any popular vote fantasies she may have had. Voter registration is at record levels and most of it is from college students, liberals in the Triangle and veterans in the East who have no love for Clinton. How do I know this? Well I was registering voters for Obama & McCain while jobless in January and the numbers were staggering then and they are even more so now.

    It will be intersting to see if Obama recognizes the Michigan and Florida popular vote, to frame the history of his come-back.

    As Elizabeth Drew points out (1), the rush of super delegates from the House is still going Obama’s way because he’s less of a downer on the ticket than HRC.

    Obviously it’s critical for Hillary to attack Obama as ferociously as she can, to take away that advantage.

    In a way that is one reason why I want Obama as the Democrat nominee, if anything because he isn’t as batshit crazy as the Clintons or the far-left fringes.

    Are you referring to his policy proposals, his style, or something else?

    The other key would be the young voters… registering in record numbers and passionately for Obama. Losing them would be as bad as losing the black vote.

    They are such a reliable voting bloc, coming to the rescue in 1972 and 2004! :-)

    Steve,

    The question was rhetorical. MSNBC in paritcular had been running commentators, noting as Obama will have support of the Democratic voters, Hillary should concede out of respect for them. Now that the situation is reversed, those voices are silent.

    Biz,

    Thanks for the link!

    Purpleslog,

    Could you elaborate on Gore?

    Mark in Texas,

    Good point about the superdelegates perhaps caring more about Congresstional rather than Presidential control.

    That is because to do otherwise will incur the wrath of black voters and Democrats cannot win many races without a heavy turn out of Blacks voting nine to one Democrat.

    True… however, more Clinton voters say they’ll defect than Obama voters, and (as this post notes) there are more Clinton voters.

  11. The Superdelegates do care about Congressional control but since many of them are elected officials like mayors and state senators, etc they care about their own reelection even more. Many, if not most, Democrat elected officials depend on a strong black voter turn out and cannot be elected without it.

    If they give the nomination to Hillary Clinton, they will certainly depress the black vote in this election and they will very likely be viewed as enemies and traitors in the future meaning that they will certainly face strong primary challengers next time. Black voters are like second amendment voters in that they never forget and they never forgive.

  12. “They are such a reliable voting bloc, coming to the rescue in 1972 and 2004! ”

    Nice snarky comment backed up by a flawed assumption. Aren’t the 18-30 voter numbers the highest ever by far this year and we’re just in the primary season?

  13. Zenpundit,

    The “pledged” in “pledged delegates” appear to mean as much as any other pledge in politics: an invitation to bargain.

    Mark in Texas,

    Excellent point on the power of the primaries. Very insightful comment!

    Eddie,

    Not a snarky comment, merely a statement of fact.

    We might say that turnout among young voters is unreliable, that it exhibits both a low mean and high variance.

  14. Dan,

    Agreed. I am interested in the social platforms and technologies that have been used to ensure 18-30’s vote as mentioned in articles by Businessweek and Rolling Stone about the Obama election team. I know for a fact both the DNC & RNC are highly interested in it as well.

  15. Eddie,

    Naturally, low-quality (in the sense of high variability, low mean performance) parts require novel and untested approaches, if one wants to replicate the performance of high-quality parts with them. It will be interesting to see if it works.

    Slate has an interesting article about Obama’s decline among young North Carolinians [1], though as Clinton temporarily let her coalition fall apart before her resurrection in Ohio and Texas, perhaps even a fraying in his coalition at this point would not be a big deal.

    [1] http://www.slate.com/id/2175496/?from=rss

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