Comments on: Re-”Orientation” http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/05/27/re-orientation.html All of us against the machine Tue, 16 Mar 2010 22:41:24 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: A Second Hand Conjecture » China & Russia: Models and Modalities http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/05/27/re-orientation.html/comment-page-1#comment-114650 A Second Hand Conjecture » China & Russia: Models and Modalities Mon, 04 Aug 2008 04:59:40 +0000 http://www.tdaxp.com/?p=5597#comment-114650 [...] geography of the two countries has never lent itself easily to unified fronts (although an emerging post-European stage for Russia could change those dynamics), it was the specific modal conflict Fukuyama [...] [...] geography of the two countries has never lent itself easily to unified fronts (although an emerging post-European stage for Russia could change those dynamics), it was the specific modal conflict Fukuyama [...]

]]> By: tdaxp » Blog Archive » Russia is an Oriental Potentate http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/05/27/re-orientation.html/comment-page-1#comment-98707 tdaxp » Blog Archive » Russia is an Oriental Potentate Tue, 08 Jul 2008 23:53:43 +0000 http://www.tdaxp.com/?p=5597#comment-98707 [...] Russian Federation is a Central Asian state, part of the Eastern Seam / New Core expanse that begins where the Near East becomes the Middle [...] [...] Russian Federation is a Central Asian state, part of the Eastern Seam / New Core expanse that begins where the Near East becomes the Middle [...]

]]> By: Brent Grace http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/05/27/re-orientation.html/comment-page-1#comment-79089 Brent Grace Sat, 31 May 2008 06:52:53 +0000 http://www.tdaxp.com/?p=5597#comment-79089 Thinking about Russia recently lead me to ask: Can we conceptualize a positive outcome for Russia in the 21st century? I mean, we have our pick of former communist countries and even former imperial powers to look to as examples, but Russia was special. Is there a country in the world that presented as much of a strategic threat to Europe for decades, maintained a global empire and exported a revolutionary ideology that was down right dangerous to the global order of the time? A country that financed insurgencies against their global rivals and sent advisors and even combat troops abroad to fuel proxy wars designed to bleed their rivals dry? Can we find such an example? A country that might allow us to imagine what Russia might be like in a decade or two? My answer: France. Now France was never a massive oil and gas exporter, so I realize the analogy isn't perfect. But I do think Putin has been sounding very De Gaulleesque in the last couple years. From comparing Bush to Hitler to withdrawing from the conventional weapons treaty in Europe, it all reminds me of some of the more cantankerous stunts that De Gaulle pulled [1] as France settled into their postwar role as a second rate power (De Gaulle's "stunts" included demanding gold instead of U.S. dollars, threatening to target England with France's nuclear stockpile and quiting NATO; all far worse offenses then anything we've seen from Russia). And of course France, like Russia, has had plenty of ups and downs on their route to finding a system of government [2] that works for them. France's obstinate post war attitude was, I believe, rooted in a sort of "stabbed in the back" national myth that held that England and the U.S. didn't do enough to thwart German rearmament in the inter war period. Russia, as I understand it, is currently kicking around a "stabbed in the back" myth of their own, that holds that the west didn't do enough to help Russia avert an economic collapse after the Soviet Union dissolved. Two decades hence, when we look at Russia, hopefully we'll be able to see what we see today when we look at France; a cranky neutered super power with a declining population and often contrarian yet ultimately inert foreign policy. [1] http://academic.umf.maine.edu/~erb/200607/1eur4.htm [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_French_Republic Thinking about Russia recently lead me to ask: Can we conceptualize a positive outcome for Russia in the 21st century? I mean, we have our pick of former communist countries and even former imperial powers to look to as examples, but Russia was special. Is there a country in the world that presented as much of a strategic threat to Europe for decades, maintained a global empire and exported a revolutionary ideology that was down right dangerous to the global order of the time? A country that financed insurgencies against their global rivals and sent advisors and even combat troops abroad to fuel proxy wars designed to bleed their rivals dry? Can we find such an example? A country that might allow us to imagine what Russia might be like in a decade or two? My answer: France.

Now France was never a massive oil and gas exporter, so I realize the analogy isn’t perfect. But I do think Putin has been sounding very De Gaulleesque in the last couple years. From comparing Bush to Hitler to withdrawing from the conventional weapons treaty in Europe, it all reminds me of some of the more cantankerous stunts that De Gaulle pulled [1] as France settled into their postwar role as a second rate power (De Gaulle’s “stunts” included demanding gold instead of U.S. dollars, threatening to target England with France’s nuclear stockpile and quiting NATO; all far worse offenses then anything we’ve seen from Russia).

And of course France, like Russia, has had plenty of ups and downs on their route to finding a system of government [2] that works for them.

France’s obstinate post war attitude was, I believe, rooted in a sort of “stabbed in the back” national myth that held that England and the U.S. didn’t do enough to thwart German rearmament in the inter war period. Russia, as I understand it, is currently kicking around a “stabbed in the back” myth of their own, that holds that the west didn’t do enough to help Russia avert an economic collapse after the Soviet Union dissolved.

Two decades hence, when we look at Russia, hopefully we’ll be able to see what we see today when we look at France; a cranky neutered super power with a declining population and often contrarian yet ultimately inert foreign policy.

[1] http://academic.umf.maine.edu/~erb/200607/1eur4.htm
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_French_Republic

]]>