Are you considering the world economy (which is much stronger, broader, and deeper than it was only a few years ago), our big war force (which is largely unchanged), our COIN capacity (which has gone from almost nothing to nearing cycling effectivley in Iraq), or some other measure?

Glenn,

I give you props tdaxp for admitting your fault in assessment of the situation.

One of the reasons I created this blog was to catch contradictions in my thinking. I’m glad it worked in this case.

Soob,

Good point on Pakistan. Iran also supports Sadr and other thugs, but the government is strong enough that it can make strategic decisions (such as supporting SIIC and Dawa, who are also our friends). I don’t think Islamabad is that competent.

Mark in Texas,

Public infrastructure development is certainly part of COIN, but the most striking success in elite has been the ground-up coopting of local elites into Concerned Citizens Brigades and other entities. That’s manpower-intensive, a game changer (at least in Iraq), and that’s something a Surge is needed to accomplish.

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11402695

The US Army is successfully waging COIN in Afghanistan by building roads. As one of the officers quoted in the article says “Where the roads end the insurgents begin.”

This is a restatement of Dr.Barnett’s “Disconectedness defines danger”.

Robert Byrd made a political career by getting roads built in West Virginia. Surely the political success of Hamid Karzai is as valuable to the US as the political success of Robert Byrd. Come up with a slush fund of a few million dollars a year for roads that Karzai can award as political plums to reward political favors. Don’t send money into Kabul. That will just get stolen. Instead let Karzai pick where the roads will be built and which locals will be hired. Each road connects more Afghans a little closer to the Core. The process of determining where the roads get built helps strengthen the Afghan central government.

What Glenn said.

I give you props tdaxp for admitting your fault in assessment of the situation.