China and the Presidential Election

I just mentioned to Bill that “if I was lukewarm on comprehensive immigration reform, against free trade, against completing the COIN cycle in Iraq, or in favor of pre-birth infanticide, I might support Barack Obama.” This is true, through as I recently commented on Tom’s blog, there’s may be another big reason to support Obama

there is one good reason to vote for Obama: China.

Obama is running for Bush’s third term, in the sense that he is an inexperienced outsider who will have to rely on establishment faces to make his administration work. [1] This means that his defense policy on China will be shaped by the center-left defense establishment, his commercial policy on China will be shaped by the center-left commercial establishment, his diplomatic policy on China will be shaped by the center-left diplomatic establishment, and so on.

In other words, our policy of “separate lanes” will continue.

McCain is smart, experienced, and knowledgeable enough to have a different policy, and implement it.

Novelty can be dangerous, especially if McCain is serious about the “league of Democracy.”

Obama’s said more dangerous things (renegotiating NAFTA, not importing any more Chinese toys, etc), but as outlined above, no one takes his words seriously.

Still, Obama as the less risky candidate for China runs up the common finding that the Chinese Communist Party, like most “Seam” governments, supports the Republicans:

In general, the Republican Party is a minority party, more serious about trade, and more serious about foreign affairs.

In general, the Democratic Party is a majority power, more serious about social justice, and more serious about human rights.

It’s not surprising that from this the leadership of the Old Core admires and trusts Democrats, while the leadership of the Seam admires and trusts Republicans.

So should pro-W Republicans who stand for good Sino-American relations, like me, support Obama (as the Bush III candidate) or McCain (as the Republican candidate)?