Btw, do we accept a nuclear Iran?

I would imagine so. Probably proliferation to Egypt and Saudi Arabia as well, for regional balancing. Turkey’s development of them probably depends on its EU accession status.

This can happen on our terms, or against them. I’d rather be in on the process.

ElamBend’s also quite right that there is not a unitary Iranian government, so much as different powerful factions. The situation recalls Pakistan.

Relatedly, Rice will be the first SecState in Libya since the ’50s. [1]

[1] http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/netradio/news.newsmain?action=article&ARTICLE_ID=1355674

First of all, Iran, is NOT a natural ally of some of our allies, namely Iraq and Afghanistan. The Arabs, particularly the Sunni Arabs who are nominally our allies are also quite wary of them. (I think the Gulf States would welcome a grand agreement, though).
Second, Turkey is an unreliable ally. (I think Iran would be also). That being said, they both have the wild card to the north to deal with.
Our long term interests lie with making some kind of peace/agreement; the current ‘argument’ between us is just a slow motion dance to finding a structure to some relationship.
Iran has options, though. Besides Russia, India and China, who both rely on Iranian oil to a higher degree than we, or Europe, are ready to make peace.
One of our greatest assets to offer them is trade and expertise. Iran’s economy is a mess. To describe it corrupt would be an understatement. It was in bad shape before the current President, but his economic interventions have made things worse.

There is one final problem, Iran is hardly a single entity. Any embrace must come through the ayatollah, but even then, certain sectors of Iranian power may prove to be disruptive and certain large gas producing gap states will probably stir things up.

I agree, and many thanks!

nykrindc,

Your blog is just so insightful throughout all of this.

Consider this bit from your recent post: [1]

What’s troubling about this report, is the fact that as noted by Bandera, the last time Crimean separatism reared its ugly head, it was solely through the efforts of then Russian President Boris Yeltsin, that a wider crisis was avoided in 1995. The main problem now, is that Yeltsin is no longer in control, nor Russia as weak as it was back then.

It’s one thing to talk of Russia’s evaporate soft power [2], but this is a concrete example: Yeltsin was able to act as a mediator, because of Russia’s generally favorable relation to various factions in Ukraine. Putin’s lost this ability.

[1] http://nykrindc.blogspot.com/2008/08/more-reverberations-from-russo-georgian.html
[2] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/08/18/russias-evaporated-soft-power.html

Very good post!

If you are interested in a conspiracy theory view of politics, the blog Dreaming 5GW [1] (where I sometimes contributes) attempts to explore the logical forms and necessities of conspiracy-based warfare, which there is called 5GW (the Fifth Gradient of War).

NYkrinDC,

This week, due to geopolitical factors, involving US disapproval of Ahmedinejad’s visit to Turkey, the Turks had to sub him on an energy deal (US voiced disapproval of Ahmedinejad’s visit and Turkey compromised by saying they would snub his energy deal), but if things get worst in Georgia, look for the Turks to change their stance.

Indeed. The news you describe is important. Your great posts are helping to explain obscure parts of the conflict to everyone. I’ll quote a portion of the most recent post [2] below, but really everything you are doing is top-notch.

As noted above, Azerbaijan being one third of the BTC pipeline, has already felt pressure from Russia. In addition, due to the Nagorno Karabakh dispute, Azerbaijan was on the receiving end of Russian military intervention. Given that history, and the shared ownership of the BTC pipeline, Baku and Tbilisi are not only economic but also strategic allies. Their interdependence was showcased following the bombing of the BTC pipeline in Turkey by the PKK, taking it off service. Azerbaijan, unable to rely on the BTC pipeline, was relying on Georgian ports and pipelines to ship its oil westward. According to Fariz Ismailzade at the Jamestown Foundation, both also belong to the GUAM regional security organization. GUAM is made up of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova. The organization was established in 1997, and included Usbekistan who officially withdrew following the Andijan massacre. Since then, the organization essentially ceased operations, and was only revived in January 2007 with talk of forming it’s own peacekeeping and security forces. The January meeting was attended not only the original members but also Lithuania, Poland and Romania.

During the middle of the Russian military counter-attack on Georgia, Azerbaijani sites, such as none of its most popular websites, came under Russian cyber-attack (much like internet sites all over Georgia). Additionally, during hostilities in Georgia, Russia targeted Azerbaijani populated areas of Georgia, apparently trying to foment strife between both nations. Instead, on August 11 50 Azerbaijanis gathered in Georgia’s Azerbaijani-populated provinces to go to war for the defense of their country.

Doug,

dan, didn’t mean to suggest anyone currently has parity with the US. how would we co-opt iran? interesting idea but i think the cost/benefit risk/reward wouldn’t pan out — what am i missing?

First step would be to deconflict — determine who are mutual clients are, and dial down our punishment when our clients also work with Iran. This refers mostly to the Iraq political parties that have been with us since the beginning — PUK, KDP, Dawa, SIIC/SCIRI. My own impression is that this is relatively easy, because it makes like easier for everyone.

Also important is the steps required to recognize Iran and begin economic exchanges. Even if Iran acts in a narrowly self-interested way, this still provides a method of transporting central asian oil and natural gas that is not through Russia. We will see how Iran’s regime responds to this in the next 20 years or so. Perhaps it will be successful like China, or perhaps it will fall back on itself like Russia.

[1] http://dreaming5gw.com/
[2] http://nykrindc.blogspot.com/2008/08/update-and-regional-impact-of-russo.html

This week, due to geopolitical factors, involving US disapproval of Ahmedinejad’s visit to Turkey, the Turks had to sub him on an energy deal (US voiced disapproval of Ahmedinejad’s visit and Turkey compromised by saying they would snub his energy deal), but if things get worst in Georgia, look for the Turks to change their stance.