The First-Strike AMB Treaty with Poland, Turkey’s Trans-Caucus Union, visits to Tblisi by the Presidents of of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, not to mention Secretary Rice and Senator Biden, the “global lift” capacity of rapid US deployment of Georgian troops and humanitarian supplies, and the Russian bear market are some of the immediate second-order effects of Russia’s invasion of Poland.
There is still more to come. The Economist calls for adding Georgia and Ukraine to NATO while reducing the number of Russians in the west. Many online have called for Georgian engineers to begin building IEDs, and planting them where they can do the most damage. The U.S. government should make it clear that companies (and their officers) that do business with Russia risk prosecution under the relevent clauses of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, and of course SarbOx. Western allies on good terms with Islamists, such as Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia should prepare to recognize the mujahideen (in exile, if need be) of an Islamic Republic of Chechnya.
The great quiet player in all this is China, whose views on energy security and territorial integrity are well known.
Plans should be made for a People’s Olympiad in in Winter 2014, to replace the XXII Olympic Winter Games in Sochi, Russia. I assume the movements of Maria and Yekaterina are being tracked, in case it becomes useful to trade that information for, say, another “al Qaeda #3″ from an appropraite source.
Russia’s tragedy over the last decade recalls nothing so much as the sadness of Iraq. Cursed witha leader adept at removing domestic opposition and almost nothing else, Russia can expect its decline to be more violent and more rapid than otherwise would have been the case.