Countermeasures

The First-Strike AMB Treaty with Poland, Turkey’s Trans-Caucus Union, visits to Tblisi by the Presidents of of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, not to mention Secretary Rice and Senator Biden, the “global lift” capacity of rapid US deployment of Georgian troops and humanitarian supplies, and the Russian bear market are some of the immediate second-order effects of Russia’s invasion of Poland.

There is still more to come. The Economist calls for adding Georgia and Ukraine to NATO while reducing the number of Russians in the west. Many online have called for Georgian engineers to begin building IEDs, and planting them where they can do the most damage. The U.S. government should make it clear that companies (and their officers) that do business with Russia risk prosecution under the relevent clauses of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, and of course SarbOx. Western allies on good terms with Islamists, such as Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia should prepare to recognize the mujahideen (in exile, if need be) of an Islamic Republic of Chechnya.

The great quiet player in all this is China, whose views on energy security and territorial integrity are well known.

Plans should be made for a People’s Olympiad in in Winter 2014, to replace the XXII Olympic Winter Games in Sochi, Russia. I assume the movements of Maria and Yekaterina are being tracked, in case it becomes useful to trade that information for, say, another “al Qaeda #3″ from an appropraite source.

Russia’s tragedy over the last decade recalls nothing so much as the sadness of Iraq. Cursed witha leader adept at removing domestic opposition and almost nothing else, Russia can expect its decline to be more violent and more rapid than otherwise would have been the case.

9 thoughts on “Countermeasures”

  1. Seems like some good ideas. I’m opposed to Olympic boycotts on principle. I’m not entirely sure what you’re advocating in regards to the Putin daughters.

    I suppose then we’re off to a retro standoff with missiles in Eastern Europe.

  2. I wonder what China’s reaction will be to this? This was supposed to be their week; their chance to show the world how far they had come since the “century of humiliation” and the roughly half century of nationalist/Maoist war and revolution that followed. Yet instead of the world talking about China’s triumph we’re all looking at Putin’s & co.’s thugery and worried about a growing war in southeast Europe. China and Russia have always had an uneasy relationship, although they have been working to put old animosities behind them, I have a feeling China will be reevaluated security along the border they share with Putin.

    One thing I’ve been thinking about the last week is whether or not we’ll be seeing new nuclear powers in Europe in the next decade. If Eastern Europe decides they can’t count on the U.S./E.U. to back them in the event of war, their most logical option would be pursing an independent nuclear policy, as France did during the Cold War. We know North Korea will sell to anyone, it’s been long rumored that Israel helped South Africa build their bomb and of course Iran close to the neighborhood and would welcome an infusion of Euros. America should consider what our reaction would be to such a development and under what circumstances we might even facilitate it (in a deniable fashion, of course).

    Putin better be careful. Given their history, Russia does not want a Polish, Lithuanian or Armenian bomb.

  3. Adam,

    Thanks for your comment.

    Why your absolute defense of the IOC?

    Re: family, it is surely conceivable that an ambitious al Qaeda lieutanant would be ambitious for a high-profile kidnapping in order to help his own career in an organization, and likewise conceivable in order to make this happen he might rat out a superior.

    Turning the leaves against the roots is a wise practice in counterinsurgency, especially when this can be done at cost only to another enemy.

    Brent,

    Well said.

    China must also be worried about the independence of the central Asian states, who are in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in order to provide energy security to Beijing, but who Russia is loudly insisting should be subservient to Moscow as part of the former Soviet Union.

    The original draft of this post contained a note saying that an alternative to these counter-measures would be the nuclear arming Russia’s neighbors. I’m glad we’re on the same page.

  4. Dan

    Some of your suggestions seem a bit extreme. Really, NATO membership for Ukraine is exactly what the Russians don’t want and were hoping to discourage by their actions in Georgia. Now the Ukrainianans are asking to be part of a missile defense deal like Poland got. If the Russians are still in Georgia outside the borders of Abkazia and Ossetia next week, I am guessing that there will be some kind of reciprocal security arrangement between Turkey and Azerbaijan announced. Such an arrangement could have a fast track to NATO membership associated with it. And if Azerbaijan joined NATO, surely Armenia should join at the same time.

    Extending NATO to the Caspian Sea is a whole lot more constructive than recognizing some kind of Islamist republic of Chechnya or threatening Putin’s family.

  5. Adam,

    Gotcha,

    Mark in Texas,

    Extending NATO to the Caspian Sea is a whole lot more constructive than recognizing some kind of Islamist republic of Chechnya or threatening Putin’s family.

    Quite possibly, depending on the conditions.

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