Gotcha,

Mark in Texas,

Extending NATO to the Caspian Sea is a whole lot more constructive than recognizing some kind of Islamist republic of Chechnya or threatening Putin’s family.

Quite possibly, depending on the conditions.

Some of your suggestions seem a bit extreme. Really, NATO membership for Ukraine is exactly what the Russians don’t want and were hoping to discourage by their actions in Georgia. Now the Ukrainianans are asking to be part of a missile defense deal like Poland got. If the Russians are still in Georgia outside the borders of Abkazia and Ossetia next week, I am guessing that there will be some kind of reciprocal security arrangement between Turkey and Azerbaijan announced. Such an arrangement could have a fast track to NATO membership associated with it. And if Azerbaijan joined NATO, surely Armenia should join at the same time.

Extending NATO to the Caspian Sea is a whole lot more constructive than recognizing some kind of Islamist republic of Chechnya or threatening Putin’s family.

I could come up with several lofty sounding reasons, but it really comes down to brand loyalty.

Thanks for your comment.

Why your absolute defense of the IOC?

Re: family, it is surely conceivable that an ambitious al Qaeda lieutanant would be ambitious for a high-profile kidnapping in order to help his own career in an organization, and likewise conceivable in order to make this happen he might rat out a superior.

Turning the leaves against the roots is a wise practice in counterinsurgency, especially when this can be done at cost only to another enemy.

Brent,

Well said.

China must also be worried about the independence of the central Asian states, who are in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in order to provide energy security to Beijing, but who Russia is loudly insisting should be subservient to Moscow as part of the former Soviet Union.

The original draft of this post contained a note saying that an alternative to these counter-measures would be the nuclear arming Russia’s neighbors. I’m glad we’re on the same page.

One thing I’ve been thinking about the last week is whether or not we’ll be seeing new nuclear powers in Europe in the next decade. If Eastern Europe decides they can’t count on the U.S./E.U. to back them in the event of war, their most logical option would be pursing an independent nuclear policy, as France did during the Cold War. We know North Korea will sell to anyone, it’s been long rumored that Israel helped South Africa build their bomb and of course Iran close to the neighborhood and would welcome an infusion of Euros. America should consider what our reaction would be to such a development and under what circumstances we might even facilitate it (in a deniable fashion, of course).

Putin better be careful. Given their history, Russia does not want a Polish, Lithuanian or Armenian bomb.

I suppose then we’re off to a retro standoff with missiles in Eastern Europe.