Demography and Destiny

Russia is declining faster than is otherwise the case bcause of Putin’s burning away her soft power, but more fundamental factors are at work, too:

Washington Times – DALE: Russian decline
Russia is currently losing population at a spectacular rate of 700,000 people per year, which will amount to 31 percent between 2005 and 2050. It is a decline that has started earlier than elsewhere in the developed world. Unlike Western Europe, where you can truly talk about graying populations as life-expectancy has grown in tandem with collapsing birthrates, Russians are experiencing declining birthrates as well as falling life expectancy. Birth rates are now around 1.2 to 1.3, while life expectancy for Russian men is now back to what it used to be in the 1950s – 59 years of age, a full 20 years less than Japanese men and three years less than Bangladeshi men. The causes are not far to seek – a dismal health-care system and vast alcohol consumption.

Oil wealth might make Russia look strong today, but its human capital is being inexorably eroded with consequences for economic growth as well as social and family cohesion. Mr. Putin has called population decline “the most acute problem facing our country today.” Attending population decline, write the authors of the study, are political trends that we already see playing themselves out. Ethnic composition will change, for instance, as Russia’s Muslim population will grow proportionately to its Slav population. Muslims may be in the majority by 2050. Tendencies towards illiberal political solutions may well be the choice of the threatened ethnic group, as we are indeed seeing in Russia today with Mr. Putin’s authoritarian grab for perpetual power. And it may lash out against other nations in a diversion from internal problems – just ask the Georgians.

Meanwhile, the rather distinct silver lining in all of this for the United States is that while Russia collapses and Western Europe declines, the United States will experience healthy population growth due to sound fertility rates and immigration – and with it growing international influence among developed nations. In 1820, the United States held 6 percent of the population of the developed world; today it is 34 percent, and in 2050 it will be 43 percent. “In tandem,” write the authors, “the influence of the United States within the developed world will likely rise.”

Russia is a nuclear and militant version of Portugal – an energy-arbitraging Gap state of Central Asia that should be kept in its box, where it can cause the least trouble to the rest of the world.

8 thoughts on “Demography and Destiny”

  1. “Meanwhile, the rather distinct silver lining in all of this for the United States is that while Russia collapses and Western Europe declines,” (Dan)

    Silver lining? Western Europe is America’s biggest (and richest) market, you better hope we pick up another 350,000,000 consumers in Asia to make up for Europe as it moves to Sharia law.

    “the United States will experience healthy population growth due to sound fertility rates and immigration” (Dan)

    Sure? But if/when the Southwest turns into the Gap, are you comfortable with Chinese Sysadmin troops operating in America?

  2. Seerov,

    Thanks for the comment.

    Silver lining? Western Europe is America’s biggest (and richest) market, you better hope we pick up another 350,000,000 consumers in Asia to make up for Europe as it moves to Sharia law.

    I don’t know what you’re claiming, so I don’t know how to respond.

    Sure? But if/when the Southwest turns into the Gap, are you comfortable with Chinese Sysadmin troops operating in America?

    The two halves of your last sentence have little to do with each other.

    Certainly, if you are worried about the lack of assimilation by immigrants into American culture, you would strongly oppose property convanents, race-based organizing, etc. — but previously on this blog you’ve supported such things.

    As for the second half, I’ve correctly called the location of the last five shootings in Omaha (north Omaha, west of Carter lake and east of I-680). If it’d work, I’d be happy with the PLA cleaning out bad elements from those neighborhoods.

  3. “As for the second half, I’ve correctly called the location of the last five shootings in Omaha (north Omaha, west of Carter lake and east of I-680). If it’d work, I’d be happy with the PLA cleaning out bad elements from those neighborhoods.” (Dan)

    Ok then, its out. Dan tdaxp supports the use of non-American troops on American soil.

    “Certainly, if you are worried about the lack of assimilation by immigrants into American culture, you would strongly oppose property convanents, race-based organizing, etc. — but previously on this blog you’ve supported such things.” (Dan)

    I support me, and my future blood-lines having a decent way of life. I’ll go along with the borderless-Multicultural-neoliberal world–that you want so badly–until it becomes “not decent” for me and family. When the situation in this country gets to the point where it’s unsafe for me or my family, then I’ll do everything I can to make it safe again. If this requires ethnic political organization; then so be it. If it requires taking part in an insurgency against the Chinese; so be it. If it requires me running for the President of the United States, then so be it.

    Please understand that I fully support the idea of American hegemony. In fact, for 4 years of my life, my life was dedicated to pursuing American geopolitical interests. But if this American hegemony turns into global elite hegemonic interests, then I see no reason to support it anymore? Because when it gets to that point, it will be obvious that I’m no longer an “American” citizen. At this point, it appears that I’ll be a “citizen of the world” or more accurately, a “subject” under a global elite who see me as nothing more than a consumer in their borderless-multicultural-neoliberal planet.

    What you call “property covenant’s” is double speak for the Constitutional right of freedom of association. I understand if you oppose this right, because this right makes it more difficult to force Americans into a borderless-multicultural-neoliberal world. In general, I don’t see race-based organizing as the optimal organizing principal for people.

    But there will be no other choice if the global elite are pursuing their interests, along with each and every non-white ethnic group in America pursuing their own. Obviously the group that’s too scared or stupid to pursue their own will be at the mercy of the elites and other ethnic groups. So if working/middle class whites do start organizing racially, this will only be the result of being forced to. I see this need as a last resort. It’s a day I hope never has to come. During my service to both Kosovo and Iraq, I have seen the results of ethnic conflict and never wish to see this happen in my own homeland (nor anyone else’s). But if people have their backs against the wall, they will eventually act.

  4. Seerov,

    Thanks for your comment.

    Ok then, its out. tdaxp supports the use of non-American troops on American soil.

    Well, like any patriotic American, under certain circumstances, yeah.

    Imagine if the 1791 Whiskey Rebellion against the Constitution had succeeded and the rebels had seized Pennsylvania. They pushed back President Washington’s federal force, and petitioned the United Kingdom for reincorporation of the Empire.

    And also imagien if France offered to put down the rebellion and return control of Pennsylvania to the United States, in order to prevent the British from splitting us.

    Clearly, Britain would support those Americans who imagine a Constitutional clause that is not there, preventing the use of foreign troops on American soldiers. Those that support our Union and our Constitution, however, would due what it takes to preserve it.

    Now, of course, allowing something in principle is a world of difference from accepting this or that offer of assistance.

    I support me, and my future blood-lines having a decent way of life. I’ll go along with the borderless-Multicultural-neoliberal world–that you want so badly–until it becomes “not decent” for me and family. When the situation in this country gets to the point where it’s unsafe for me or my family, then I’ll do everything I can to make it safe again. If this requires ethnic political organization; then so be it. If it requires taking part in an insurgency against the Chinese; so be it. If it requires me running for the President of the United States, then so be it.

    It’s hard to know what you are loyal to. Sometimes it is the State. Sometimes it is the Bloodline.

    I’ve not heard our Nation, our Republic, our Constitution, or our Land.

    I wonder how many of these absolute loyalties you have, and how you resolve them.

    What you call “property covenant’s” is double speak for the Constitutional right of freedom of association. I understand if you oppose this right, because this right makes it more difficult to force Americans into a borderless-multicultural-neoliberal world.

    It’s not double-speak, it’s a form of freedom association that has been in use for many decades to voluntarily regulate residential real estate.

    The Supreme Court, with suspect reasoning but noble intent, struck down those parts of covenants that are race-conscious.

    How to restore this constitutional right is important, as is restoring Congress’s sole power to declare war.

    Still, reality intervenes.

  5. “Well, like any patriotic American, under certain circumstances, yeah.” (Dan)

    Sure I guess? In fact, I agree. If the Chi-coms were used to to occupy American soil, I would support foreign nations helping us remove the Chi-coms. As soon as the Chi-coms went home, the foreign troops would have to leave too.

    “Those that support our Union and our Constitution, however, would due what it takes to preserve it.” (Dan)

    Who gets to say what “supporting the Union and our Constitution” means?

    “It’s hard to know what you are loyal to. Sometimes it is the State. Sometimes it is the Bloodline.” (Dan)

    I thought I’ve been clear about this but here’s goes. I fully support the United States and am still willing to die for it. The US has offered my family (bloodlines) a fine way of life and I would do everything to defend this way of life. BUT, if the day comes when this way of life is no longer possible, and/or it becomes obvious that other “Americans” are only pursuing their own sub-group (non-American) interests, then I think its obvious that another survival strategy might need to be considered. Unforchently, I see more signs of this everyday.[1]

    “How to restore this constitutional right is important,” (dan)

    Its not only “important,” its an imperative if we want America to operate in a non-tyrannical manner. As you might remember, I support a political ideology known as “Localism.” Localism allows people to enjoy the way of life they see fit (within reason), while still contributing to America as a whole. Therefore, the evangelical in the South, the homosexual in SF, and the Aztlan Mestizo in the SW will come together in support each other for the purpose of supporting their own way of life. I’m currently writing a book on this ideology and expect it to change the world similar to the Bible, communist manifesto, and Wealth of Nations. In fact, I may even ask you to edit it? That is, after I finish the review of your book 🙂

    [1] http://vdare.com/epstein/080821_treason.htm

  6. Seerov,

    So there it is, Seerov supports foreign troops on US soil! 😉

    Who gets to say what “supporting the Union and our Constitution” means?

    Under the Constitution, the branches of our government, checking and balancing each other.

    As you might remember, I support a political ideology known as “Localism.” Localism allows people to enjoy the way of life they see fit (within reason), while still contributing to America as a whole… I’m currently writing a book on this ideology and expect it to change the world similar to the Bible, communist manifesto, and Wealth of Nations. In fact, I may even ask you to edit it? That is, after I finish the review of your book

    Ha ha! 🙂

    I will be interested in how to justify localism against states rights, in particular.

    [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War

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