Russia against the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and against Open Government

I just wanted to pass on this post my Registan. Much of it discusses the Core/Gap divide, but the perhaps the most interesting paragraph notes that Georgia was the best reformer in the world and that Kazakhstan and the UAE were ready to make a big investment on the Georgian Black Sea:

Registan.net
Meanwhile, Barnett’s Non-Integrating Gap Georgia must now contemplate exactly how Russia’s invasion will shatter it’s growing success story. Ras al-Khaimah’s $100m plan to turn Poti into the “Dubai of the Black Sea” is almost certainly off the table, as is future investment from Kazakhstan. And it is unclear how Georgia’s rather stunning advances in economic reform and anti-corruption will fare with Russian troops trampling all over Gori.

Russia’s actions hurt the things that would have supported Russia as a new core state. By violently attacking neighbors, Moscow is violently asserting hegemony in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is properly a way of China to organize her resource suppliers (including Russia). By attacking a reforming neighbor, Russia is helping to make her own government more obscure. By attacking sources of investment, Russia is helping to disconnect her own economy from the world.

Russia is a rogue state, a Gap dictatorship whose parasitic attacks on the Core not only endanger the peace, but whose destruction of a stable investment opportunities hurt the attempts of Seam states to invest wisely and build themselves up.

Russia is a Gap state. Russia is not a friend or a partner. Russia is a gap dictatorship that whose that slows down globalization and destroy wealth. The misery Russia causes is proportional to the power we give her.

8 thoughts on “Russia against the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and against Open Government”

  1. I wouldn’t quite say that Russia is a rogue state just yet. I think there’s too many ways to look at the invasion of Georgia to say it is something that is particularly disconnecting and corrupt. But it is certainly something of intervention, which can be scary since Russia’s intentions are still obscure and unknown. I’m really concerned to be honest of Russia’s threats against Poland and the Czech Republic, and its intentions to sever all ties with NATO. I have no idea where this can go to, but it can’t be any good at all…

  2. Russia isn’t a ‘rogue” state, they are a gap state – a big one with nukes.

    That is what makes them dangerous. With the exception of cash from rising oil prices, they are on decline.

    Open conflict is not required. Patience, alternative energy, lawfare against the economic interest of the Russian elites in the courts of Core states, influence warfare to shine light relentless (on the leaders, practices, and victims). Also, as a gap state, they have no business being in the G8 or in cooperative programs with NATO.

  3. jetpower81,

    Russia’s maximizing its freedom of maneuver, but cutting its ties to the Core. Gap states such as Venezuela in our day, and Castro’s Cuba once upon a time, did the same thing.

    Putin is an enemy to be managed.

    Purpleslog,

    Excellent comment, and great reminder of Russia as a state in the Gap.

    Russia is on the decline, but we still have the responsibility of making sure Russia — and other gap states — do not learn the wrong lessons [2].

    Agreed that Russia has no forseeable future in either the G8 or NATO.

    Frankly, every day that Russia is in the G8 but China is not is a day of testimony to how out of touch that organization is.

    [1] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/08/27/russias-invasion-of-georgia-in-context.html
    [2] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/08/14/learning-theories.html

  4. the G8 needs RUSSIA more than ever especialy Europe they depend on russia of many things especialy oil gas and energy over 50% of russian oil gas and energy is gowing to western Europe so dont say that Russia is not needed in G8 also Russia is a super power it hase stranght to compit with any countr in the world because it hase the supplays. also if they will take russia out of G8 that all europe will suffer from oil gas and energy and russia will not fight agenst drogs with nato and other stuff like terorist and this will make europe and nato weak because they dont wana coperate with russia.think about the future without russia dont jest say that they dont need russia in the g8.

  5. roma

    While life would certainly be easier for the Europeans if Russia were to participate in the European economy and drug interdiction efforts, Europe can probably get along better without Russia than Russia can get along without Europe. This includes the former Warsaw pact nations who become much more prosperous (and militarily powerful) as they become more integrated into Western Europe.

    The invasion of Georgia really freaked out the Europeans more than the Russian leadership imagined it would. That makes them view Russian energy sources as much more risky. Explicit threats to cut off the energy just increases the perception of risk. If they perceive Russian energy sources as risky, they are going to look for alternatives such as more nuclear electric plants in Europe to eliminate the need for Russian gas and biofuel to eliminate the need for Russian petroleum.

    The only way that Russia will be able to sell its energy products as these alternate sources become increasingly available will be to cut prices enough to compensate for the risk premium. $20 a barrel oil ought to be cheap enough that people will still buy it even though it might be cut off at any moment. At that price Medvedyev will have a hard time paying for the weapons that he will need to start a new Cold War.

  6. Mark in Texas,

    Well said.

    This is breaking today, btw:

    “MOSCOW — French police are investigating the discovery of toxic mercury pellets in the car of a human rights lawyer who was taken ill in Strasbourg on Tuesday, a day before pretrial hearings in Moscow into the killing of one of her best-known clients, the journalist and Kremlin critic
    Russian human rights lawyer Karinna Moskalenko says she and her children are ill after a suspicious substance was found in their car in France.

    The case recalled events almost two years ago when Alexander Litvinenko, a former K.G.B. officer and a vocal critic of Vladimir V. Putin, died after ingesting a highly radioactive toxin, polonium 210. Scotland Yard said he had been murdered. ”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/16/world/europe/16russia.html?_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin

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