all good countermeasures. [1]

The point, of course, would not to dismember Russia by taking this or that province away. Rather

(a) punish Russia, to deter aggression by others, and
(b) create a new, adverse condition for Russia to exist in, so future Russian behaviors can be rewarded from that baseline [2]

[1] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/08/16/countermeasures.html
[2] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/08/14/learning-theories.html

[1] http://virtual.finland.fi/netcomm/news/showarticle.asp?intNWSAID=25907

There’s some hysteria out there about Russia now – people who think the Russian economy is fundamentally stronger than ours [1], or people who believe there is a New Cold War afoot.

It is important to realize how emotional such reasons are, while keeping in mind that Putin can cause real problems. Old Core states, such as the United States, Britain, and Germany, really can get through just fine. New Core states, such as Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, face real challenges from Russia in how they can integrate with the global economy. Seam states, such as Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova [2], face possibly extinction.

Russia is a real problem. With al Qaeda vanquished and much of the ‘war on terror’ either geographically limited in scope (an insurgency in Waziristan) or nonkinetic (building up the economies of investor-states), Russia has become the ‘biggest problem left.’

But the ‘Russian-Nicaraguan Axis’ is a funny concept. In the 1980s, the existence of a pro-Russian Nicaragua inspired real fear. Now that a Cold War is impossible because of Russia’s astonishing weakness, it inspires (to us, at least) chuckles.

My advice wrt Nicaragua is let Ortega talk up who he wants to, but make sure that Nicaragua stays in DR-CAFTA. Trade matters!

[1] http://www.newsweek.com/id/154551
[2] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/09/02/guam-in-the-news.html