Core-Core and Core-Gap relations in Asia

Courtesty of Tom, this brilliant piece by Henry Kissenger urging a close working relationshipw with China, a country (like the United States) which is in the functioning Core of the world economy.

From 'Threats in the Age of Obama'
From 'Threats in the Age of Obama'

From the article:

The Sino-American relationship needs to be taken to a new level. The current crisis can be overcome only by developing a sense of common purpose. Such issues as proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, energy and the environment demand strengthened political ties between China and the United States.

This generation of leaders has the opportunity to shape trans-Pacific relations into a design for a common destiny, much as was done with trans-Atlantic relations in the immediate postwar period – except that the challenges now are more political and economic than military.

Such a vision must embrace as well such countries as Japan, Korea, India, Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand, whether as part of trans-Pacific structures or, in regional arrangements, dealing with special subjects as energy, proliferation and the environment.

The complexity of the emerging world requires from America a more historical approach than the insistence that every problem has a final solution expressible in programs with specific time limits not infrequently geared to our political process.

Interesting, while “core” countries like India, Japan, and Australia are mentioned in Kissenger’s piece, “Gap” countries North Korea, Russia, and Pakistan are excluded. (Indeed, this exclusion seems purposeful, as Kissenger simply said ‘Korea’ — rhetorically ignoring the Pyongyang regime out of existence.)

Related: Russia’s gap-style competition with other countries in Central Asia. Taiwan’s core-style cooperation with China against piracy.

11 thoughts on “Core-Core and Core-Gap relations in Asia”

  1. Mexico was included in Tom’s original PNM map [1].

    I mentioned a bit ago that we need a way to actually measure & predict this [2], rather than relying on what one (me) or another (Tom) blogger says.

    Until that happens, it’s no surprise no one in International Relations programs hasn’t heard about it [3].. it’s just maps that make sense to this or that person, as opposed to a rigorous model of a serious subject.

    [1] http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/Map_index.htm
    [2] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2009/01/18/definitions-and-understandings.html
    [3] http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2009/01/10_days_until_great_powers_com.html

  2. So, is what is needed is a metric like “Connectivity Per Capita” and then Core-Seam-Gap thresholds?

    The problems are 1) is how do we calculate “Connectivity Per Capital” aka What is a good measure; and 2) what should the thresholds be.

    Hmmm…I think a Neural Network or Genetic Algorithm could be used with this. Data could be from CIA world fact book and maybe some other sources.

    This could be a fun project.

  3. It’s been a couple years since I used Tom’s suggested method of operationalizing PNM Theory. [1]

    I went back today and used Discriminant Function Analysis to tell, using those operators and the data set I used [2], which mehtod worked best.

    Here were the final results. (I’m attaching the R [3,4] code with console response after this piece, so others can follow my work):

    [,1]
    ocncg.cors 0.687
    cg.cors 0.816
    g77.cors 0.794
    g2277.cors 0.544
    afroislam.cors 0.861
    g15nalign.cors 0.550
    ldcs.cors 0.711
    ldcslldcs.cors 0.639
    freecomnon.cors 0.614

    Once again, the AfroIslam model is the best. It is followed by the Core-Gap model, and the G77 model. The Old Core – New Core – Gap model

    The predictive validity of the AfroIslam model goes up if Russia is included in the ‘Afro-Islamic’ Gap to .866. I haven’t done any tests to see if this change is meaningfully significant.

    I should see if the new map I have been using is any better…

    [1] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2006/05/16/redefining-the-gap-9-methods-and-operationalizations.html
    [2] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2006/05/21/redefining-the-gap-14-appendix-national-codes.html
    [3] http://www.r-project.org/
    [4] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2009/01/07/r-and-deep-ux.html

    ==================================
    R Code with console output follows
    ==================================

    > # Based on EDPS 972 Assignment 7 (DFA) and also 8 (LR)
    >
    > # Load Foreign Libraries
    > library(foreign)
    > library(MASS)
    > library(klaR)
    >
    > pnm.raw= read.table(“Sync/Old UNL Work/redefiningthegap.dat”, sep=”;”, header=TRUE)
    > pnm.raw= na.omit(pnm.raw)
    >
    >
    > # DFA
    > ocncg.jk= lda(OCNCG ~ Brutal + Nasty + Poor + Solitary + Short, data=pnm.raw,CV=TRUE)
    > cg.jk= lda(CG ~ Brutal + Nasty + Poor + Solitary + Short, data=pnm.raw,CV=TRUE)
    > g77.jk= lda(G77~ Brutal + Nasty + Poor + Solitary + Short, data=pnm.raw,CV=TRUE)
    > g2277.jk= lda(G2277 ~ Brutal + Nasty + Poor + Solitary + Short, data=pnm.raw,CV=TRUE)
    > afroislam.jk= lda(AfroIslam~ Brutal + Nasty + Poor + Solitary + Short, data=pnm.raw,CV=TRUE)
    > nalign.jk= lda(Nalign ~ Brutal + Nasty + Poor + Solitary + Short, data=pnm.raw,CV=TRUE)
    > g15nalign.jk= lda(G15Nalign ~ Brutal + Nasty + Poor + Solitary + Short, data=pnm.raw,CV=TRUE)
    > ldcs.jk= lda(LDCs ~ Brutal + Nasty + Poor + Solitary + Short, data=pnm.raw,CV=TRUE)
    > ldcslldcs.jk= lda(LDCsLLDCs~ Brutal + Nasty + Poor + Solitary + Short, data=pnm.raw,CV=TRUE)
    > freecomnon.jk= lda(FreeComNon~ Brutal + Nasty + Poor + Solitary + Short, data=pnm.raw,CV=TRUE)
    >
    > # BUILD TABLES
    > (ocncg.table= table(pnm.raw$OCNCG,ocncg.jk$class))

    0 1 2
    0 134 4 3
    1 11 7 2
    2 0 6 19
    > (cg.table= table(pnm.raw$CG,cg.jk$class))

    0 1
    0 136 5
    1 15 30
    > (g77.table= table(pnm.raw$G77,g77.jk$class))

    0 1
    0 112 9
    1 22 43
    > (g2277.table= table(pnm.raw$G2277,g2277.jk$class))

    0 1 2
    0 84 1 12
    1 22 1 1
    2 18 0 47
    > (afroislam.table= table(pnm.raw$AfroIslam,afroislam.jk$class))

    0 1
    0 66 14
    1 11 95
    > (nalign.table= table(pnm.raw$Nalign,nalign.jk$class))

    0 1
    0 94 14
    1 17 61
    > (g15nalign.table= table(pnm.raw$G15Nalign,g15nalign.jk$class))

    0 1 2
    0 75 0 17
    1 11 0 5
    2 13 0 65
    > (ldcs.table= table(pnm.raw$LDCs,ldcs.jk$class))

    0 1
    0 116 11
    1 29 30
    > (ldcslldcs.table= table(pnm.raw$LDCsLLDCs,ldcslldcs.jk$class))

    0 1 2
    0 26 13 1
    1 13 63 11
    2 1 26 32
    > (freecomnon.table= table(pnm.raw$FreeComNon,freecomnon.jk$class))

    0 1 2
    0 114 2 2
    1 36 0 0
    2 4 0 28
    >
    > # How many answered correctly?
    > (ocncg.fractions= diag(prop.table(ocncg.table,1)))
    0 1 2
    0.9503546 0.3500000 0.7600000
    > (cg.fractions= diag(prop.table(cg.table,1)))
    0 1
    0.9645390 0.6666667
    > (g77.fractions= diag(prop.table(g77.table,1)))
    0 1
    0.9256198 0.6615385
    > (g2277.fractions= diag(prop.table(g2277.table,1)))
    0 1 2
    0.86597938 0.04166667 0.72307692
    > (afroislam.fractions= diag(prop.table(afroislam.table,1)))
    0 1
    0.8250000 0.8962264
    > (g15nalign.fractions= diag(prop.table(g15nalign.table,1)))
    0 1 2
    0.8152174 0.0000000 0.8333333
    > (ldcs.fractions= diag(prop.table(ldcs.table,1)))
    0 1
    0.9133858 0.5084746
    > (ldcslldcs.fractions= diag(prop.table(ldcslldcs.table,1)))
    0 1 2
    0.6500000 0.7241379 0.5423729
    > (freecomnon.fractions= diag(prop.table(freecomnon.table,1)))
    0 1 2
    0.9661017 0.0000000 0.8750000
    >
    > (ocncg.cors= sum(ocncg.fractions) / length(levels(factor(OCNCG))))
    [1] 0.6867849
    > (cg.cors= sum(cg.fractions) / length(levels(factor(CG))))
    [1] 0.8156028
    > (g77.cors= sum(g77.fractions) / length(levels(factor(G77))))
    [1] 0.7935791
    > (g2277.cors= sum(g2277.fractions) / length(levels(factor(G2277))))
    [1] 0.5435743
    > (afroislam.cors= sum(afroislam.fractions) / length(levels(factor(AfroIslam))))
    [1] 0.8606132
    > (g15nalign.cors= sum(g15nalign.fractions) / length(levels(factor(G15Nalign))))
    [1] 0.5495169
    > (ldcs.cors= sum(ldcs.fractions) / length(levels(factor(LDCs))))
    [1] 0.7109302
    > (ldcslldcs.cors= sum(ldcslldcs.fractions) / length(levels(factor(LDCsLLDCs))))
    [1] 0.638837
    > (freecomnon.cors= sum(freecomnon.fractions) / length(levels(factor(FreeComNon))))
    [1] 0.6137006
    >
    > all.cors= rbind(ocncg.cors,cg.cors,g77.cors,g2277.cors,afroislam.cors,g15nalign.cors,ldcs.cors,ldcslldcs.cors,freecomnon.cors)
    > print(all.cors,digits=3)
    [,1]
    ocncg.cors 0.687
    cg.cors 0.816
    g77.cors 0.794
    g2277.cors 0.544
    afroislam.cors 0.861
    g15nalign.cors 0.550
    ldcs.cors 0.711
    ldcslldcs.cors 0.639
    freecomnon.cors 0.614

  4. “Mexico was included in Tom’s original PNM map [1].” (tdaxp)

    Yes, I know, and so was Russia. I just wanted to see if there was any consistency in your methodology? I know you’er an anti-Russian super-hawk, and was prepared to mock and question you if Mexico wasn’t in your “gap” as well. Obviously, if Russia is in the “gap” then Mexico would certainly be there too? Right?

    The more I think about the whole core-gap dichotomy, the more I have no use for it. I’m not the first to point this out, but there are cores in the gap and gaps in the core. I live about 20 minutes from a “gap” and would be in a lot of danger walking through there at this time a night (although, it is cold out).

  5. Seerov,

    I know you’er an anti-Russian super-hawk

    You’ve mentioned this twice and never bothered to define it, or provide evidence.

    Do so or withdraw your assertion.

    Obviously, if Russia is in the “gap” then Mexico would certainly be there too? Right?

    Not sure why you would think this. Mexico is better integrated into the world production change, has a larger GDP, longer life expectancy, and has attacked less of its neighbors.

    The more I think about the whole core-gap dichotomy, the more I have no use for it. I’m not the first to point this out, but there are cores in the gap and gaps in the core

    The emphasis on integration into the wealth-generating economy of the world is useful, but you’re right it leaves a lot to be desired. The quantitative analysis of PNM theory I’ve done shows that Core-Gap is not more useful than just saying “African or Muslm, or not,” that Old Core – New Core – Gap is not more useful than saying “G77, or not,” and so on.

  6. Eddie,

    Indeed.

    From the article:

    The real spoiler may turn out to be Russia. Armenia is the only country bordering Turkey, a NATO member, in which the Russians have troops and a base. Peace with Turkey could lead to their withdrawal, as Armenia leans westward. The trade-off, say some, could be for Russian peacekeepers to defend the corridor linking Armenia proper to Nagorno-Karabakh. But Russia is also said to be bullying Azerbaijan for more gas. If it gets it, that may kill the planned Nabucco pipeline to carry Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas to Europe via Turkey, leaving Europe more dependent on Russia for its energy.

    Russia’s Pipeline War had, as an objective, severing Europe from the caucuses by strong-arming the caucasian republicans into sending their oil and gas northward.

    When bloggers and other commentators feined objectivity and argue that this area is Russia’s ‘back yard,’ you can bet there is an oil services contract behind their opinion. (In at least one notable case…)

  7. It’s not just the oil pipeline.

    China has completed its railroad to its western border and is in the process of connecting to the Kazakhstan railway net. Since the railroad in Kazakhstan was built when it was part of the Soviet Union, that allows China to ship goods to Europe through Russia.

    However, with container ships in the Caspian Sea and intermodal facilities in Kazakhstan and/or Turkmenistan on the east shore and at Baku, Azerbaijan on the west shore, it would be possible to ship rail cargo between China and Europe without going through Russia (or Iran).

    This could have been done through Georgia but with last summer’s invasion, Russian troops can cut off rail traffic through Georgia any time they like.

    If Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey could work out a deal, rail traffic could move between Azerbaijan and Turkey which is connected by rail to Europe. If any Armenian politician starts talking like that might happen, I would expect to read that he was dead shortly afterwords.

  8. Mark in Texas,

    Thank you for the comment.

    China is trying to build up her connections to all the central asian states [1]. This is a rational move when the largest central asian state (Russia) has a bad habit of invading neighbors, bombing pipelines, and so on.

    Other globalizing countries are doing the same thing. You point out how Turkey is trying to mend relations in Armenia [2]. This likewise is a rational reaction to Russia’s invading one of Turkey’s neighbors.

    Great comment!

    [1] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/10/12/that-other-pipeline.html
    [2] http://www.economist.com/world/europe/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=13577983

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