Where Obama’s mortgage bailout will go

Instapundit links to this interesting article:

The beneficiaries of taxpayer charity will be highly concentrated in just five states – California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida and Michigan. That is not because the subsidized homeowners are poor Californians with $700,000 mortgages are not poor, but because they took on too much debt, often by refinancing in risky ways to “cash out” thousands more than the original loan. Nearly all subprime loans were for refinancing, not buying a home.

It turns out that the five states with by far the highest foreclosure rates have some things in common with each other, but very little in common with most other states.

I studied the latest available figures for state foreclosure rates, changes in home prices over one and five years, existing home sales, the percentage of mortgages that are underwater, and unemployment. Then I compared figures for the five most foreclosure-prone states with New York and also with the 25th-ranking median state.

One out of 76 homes in Nevada went into foreclosure in January, for example, compared with one out of 173 in California, with Arizona and Florida close behind. In New York, by contrast, only 1 out of 2,271 homes went into foreclosure.

Of course, real estate speculators existed in every state. Some of them doubtless did not realize that leveraging up to buy a house that one does not plan to live in for many years is about as wise as leveraging up to buy stock that one does not plan to live in for many years.

Certainly, those home-owners are just as sympathetic and deserving of a bailout as all those who borrowed tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy stock.