The ECFA and F-22, in context
by tdaxp ~ March 7th, 2009
This post is a follow on to “Right and Wrong Ways to Secure the Western Pacific.” Like that post, here I again criticize the F-22 (as being an expensive waste of everyone’s energy) and support the peaceful integration of China into the western Pacific region.
On the F-22:
- In “Uncle Sam Buys an Airplane,” in the Atlantic in 2002, I described the genesis of the “Joint Strike Fighter,” now known as the F-35. Its whole rationale was the fear that the F-22 would become so expensive that the U.S. would never be able to buy and field more than a tiny force. The F-35 has had problems of its own since then, and the contract officer at the center of my story has since been jailed for corruption on an unrelated matter, but the economic questions remain. (Excerpt after the jump.)
- In “F-22, Fact vs Fiction,” published in, 2000, the fighter pilot and aircraft designer Everest Riccioni assessed the F-22′s abilities relative to the F-15′s and other planes and argued that in the real circumstances of air combat, it would offer few advantages to pilots that would justify its costs — and that the excessive cost of the airplane jeopardized pilots, since it meant too small a fighting force. The link above opens his paper as a Word document.
via Let a thousand flowers bloom, Atlantic-style (F-22 dept) – James Fallows .
On China’s Peaceful Integration:
In his opening speech to the National People’s Congress, Mr. Wen clearly signaled the Chinese leadership’s support for a series of economic measures that negotiators from Beijing and Taiwan were already discussing. These include the gradual integration of banking and other financial services across the Taiwan Straits, and the drafting of a “comprehensive agreement on economic cooperation” that could eventually become the basis for a free-trade agreement.
Mr. Wen also called for “fair and reasonable arrangements” on Taiwanese participation in international organizations and a formal cessation of hostilities with Taiwan, without providing any details on how these thorny goals could be achieved. And he did not mention any specific measures of military cooperation, like a possible hot line between the People’s Liberation Army and Taiwan’s military that had been previously mentioned. President Hu of China and President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan had each expressed some interest in this in recent months.
Taiwanese officials said they were satisfied with focusing on economic issues for now. “On the political aspects, when the relationship between Taiwan and the mainland reaches a certain level of mutual trust, only then can discussions be move forward,” the island’s Mainland Affairs Council said in a statement.
via China calls for closer ties with Taiwan – New York Times.
The Taiwan-China Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) may do more to prevent war than all the F-35s and F-22s we might buy. Additionally, considering how both fifth-generation fighters( the F-22 and F-35) are governed by economies of scale, it would make more sense to buy more F-35s (which we can also share, and share the costs, with our allies) and less F-22s (which we can’t). Finally, building up our capacity to work with China in areas of mutual concern – like Afghanistan, the Sudan, North Korea, and elsewhere - is more important to peace than whatever fifth-generation fighters we aquire.
Pathogenic load reduces...
March 8th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
While I agree with you on the F-22/-35 debate, it is important to understand that “economic integration” is driven by political ideology, that of annexing Taiwan to China. After Taiwan has been swallowed by China, Beijing will turn next to the islands it claims, and other territorial ambitions. This includes the Senkakus, Japanese since 1895, which Beijing suddenly discovered in 1969 had been Chinese for the last five millennia, after the possibility of oil beneath them was announced. The US is sworn by treaty to defend the Senkakus; it has conducted military exercises with Japan in them.
Annexing Taiwan to China will not create peace, it will simply enflame China’s territorial ambitions, and lead to further conflicts, across a wider range of space, involving more nations.
Michael
March 8th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
BTW, the reason that ECFA is being proposed is because the CECA proposal fell through when some bright boy realized that CECA, as an FTA, placed Taiwan under the GATT/WTO framework, of which both Taiwan and China are members. This would enhance the island’s independent sovereignty.
Can’t have that!
So CECA and the FTA were dumped, and ECFA, a loose framework that gets around WTO regs, was born. This isn’t about economic integration, but political annexation. Hopefully, for those of us who live in Taiwan, the firm domestic opposition to annexation to China — over 90% — along with the deep unpopularity of Ma and the current administration will keep us out of Beijing’s clutches for the foreseeable future.
March 8th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
Michael Turton,
Thank you for your comment.
I like your blog. I have added it to my RSS reader.
Economics and politics lead each other on.
I think a good example here is the Federal Republic of Germany. which was split from the Reich territories of central Germany (the German Democratic Republic), SIlesia and Prussia (much of Poland), Alsace-Lorraine (part of France), and Austria. As Germany’s enemies feared upon the establishment of the FRG, any expansionist German government would naturally try to build an economic-political-monetary union that encompasses all such territories. That union currently exists. [1]
Germany is also a good example, because of the failure to similarly accomodate German power and abilities upon its original unification in 1871. No such path to peaceful hegemony existed for Berlin in 1871, as it existed for Bonn in 1949. One benefit of such a peaceful path, besides merely avoiding war, is that it allowed the other European powers to shape German abilities and aims in the process of integration. China’s neighbors, and the world, have that opportunity now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union