Guess not
by tdaxp ~ June 15th, 2009
It seems the analysis, pushed by Tom Barnett and others, that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been building a powerbase separate from and hostile to the mullahs is incorrect. Indeed, Iran’s Supreme Leader appears to be Ahmadinejad’s only visible ally at this time.
This follows on the prediction that the dismissal of Admiral Fox Fallen signaled an inevitable Bush-Cheney airstrike on Iran.
However, I still think there is hope for the earlier prediction that the mullahs will not be ruling Iran in 2020 the way they were in 2001.
The common theme here? I think analysis done in the absence of corporate entanglements is sturdier than analysis done with them. While the military-industrial-complex may keep our posture overall on an even keel, the benefits on an individual level are more monetary than intellectual.
The New York Times uses top 1% of income, not wealth. From the legend:...
June 15th, 2009 at 7:23 am
I thought it was odd that Tom had a post today that seems to assume that the 2nd Ahmadinejad term will be similar to the first[1].
I think events on the ground should lead anyone paying attention to question whether or not there will even be an Ahmadinegad regime in 72 hours, let alone 4 more years.
[1] http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2009/06/ahmadinejad_aftermath.html
June 15th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
“The common theme here? I think analysis done in the absence of corporate entanglements is sturdier than analysis done with them.” (tdaxp)
Who’s been conducting analysis while being tangled up with corporations?
June 15th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Brent,
Agreed it was weird. Juan Cole [1] and Catholicgauze have been much more worth reading. [2] And may I suggest myself [3]?
Seerov,
The subject of this post.
[1] http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/struggle-over-election-results.html
[2] http://catholicgauze.blogspot.com/2009/06/important-things-to-know-about-irans.html
[3] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2009/06/15/before-the-deaths.html
June 16th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
This weekend I watched the 8 hour film “Lonesome Dove,” which takes place in the Western USA. I tried to compare the American spread Westward to the idea of America (and others in the capitalist order) “shrinking the gap.” My main point of analysis was in thinking about the question “what opportunities will shrinking the Gap present me, and how was this comparable to the opportunities that the individual man/women faced in the West in the 19th century?
To take advantage of the opportunities people found in the West, they actually had to move West. During the movie people volunteered to help out on the cattle trail as individuals. Their own struggle for survival, required them to establish order with others in the situation. The US Army was there in some capacity, fighting the larger groups of Indians, while individuals conducted security privately.
Does opportunity exist for the motivated individual man in shrinking the gap that we seen in shrinking the West? One could volunteer to drive a truck in Iraq, but the “pioneer” won’t be settling land in South Western Asia? What are the best industries or professions to be in when shrinking the gap? What organizations should one be a part of to see the gap shrinking up close (in order to learn from it)? Private companies (who besides private security companies and Brown and Root?), government organizations (Military, diplomatic, trade), NGOs, research (in universities or think tanks).
Where and what are the best opportunities in the Gap shrinking business? Instead of deceiving the population in shrinking the gap; WHY NOT just explain what opportunities exist, and entice people to go after them? Just like the Old West? I’m reminded when “Gus” from “Lonesome Dove” explained how ridding with outlaws, was no different than being an outlaw. He said something like “Sorry you crossed the line” when hanging a guy he knew his whole life just becuase he crossed Indian territory with outlaws. Is the “Law” actually America’s “rule-sets?”
July 2nd, 2009 at 8:13 pm
[...] hard to give up on a once promising analyst, but over the last few years the feeling of reading press releases has grown stronger and stronger. [...]
July 12th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Seerov,
Westerns are a great analogy for the Gap. Earlier, along the same lines, I profiled ‘The Searchers.’ [1]
China is trying the integration-by-population-movement strategy in East Turkestan. [2] It will be interesting to see how that works against China’s moves in Africa. [3]
However, as development means capital becomes cheaper wrt labor, as developed countries grow, their natural inclination is to colonize through wealth, not bodies.
[1] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/10/17/review-of-the-searchers.html
[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/weekinreview/12wong.html
[3] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2007/10/29/what-the-core-and-africa-need-from-china.html