Before the Deaths Reach 100

This is a follow-up post to “Before the Deaths,” on the unrest following the Iranian election.

One phrase you will be hearing more about is the cycle of mourning.

In this video, regime paramilitaries begin firing and break into a private dwelling:

On Twitter, Joseph Fouche, Galrahn, and Selil debate whether the unrest is War. Of course it is. War is the application of violence for political objectives. Specifically, this is a 4GW, or 4th Gradient War. Specifically, this is an early stage 4GW.

Obama’s actions in handling America’s reaction to the unrest are praised by Andrew Sullivan and Juan Cole, and with good reason. It is hard to imagine Bush being able to react so well.

2 thoughts on “Before the Deaths Reach 100”

  1. Watch the Army. Will it sit this out? Will it come out on one side? Or (worst case) will it divide and come out on different sides? So far, the regular Army seems to be sitting this out.

    The opposition will never co-opt the guards. They are ideologically committed to the regime in power, and have a vested interest in keeping things as they were. The Army, if it can be reached, might be recruited–starting with some elements of the officer corps.

  2. Now, approaching a month later…

    Army still seems neutral.

    IGRC still is committed.

    Most of the news concerns high level officials breaking with the Supreme Leader, but offering little more than words.


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