11 thoughts on “Fitting”

  1. “Days like this make me wonder at how in the world Obama has a competent foreign policy. It’s a miracle.”

    Outsourcing his foreign policy to Clinton/Gates/Biden was a smart move.

    As a side note, his FP team’s next (and perhaps most import challenge to date) will be to avoid another rope-a-doping from the KFR. [1]

    Outsourcing economic policy to Geiter and Co. not so smart. The long tail of Geithner’s reign could be disastrous. [2]

    Outsourcing his legislative agenda to Reid/Pelosi may wind up costing him a second term. [3]

    [1] http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32563148/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

    [2] http://economistmom.com/2009/08/you-think-9-trillion-sounds-bad/

    [3] http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/Obama44JobApproval.xml&choices=Approve,Disapprove&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=Disapprove-BF0014,Approve-000000,Undecided-68228B

  2. Brent Grace,

    I agree completely.

    Purpleslog,

    When the Administration’s words and deeds contradict each other, I go with deeds. In Honduras we are playing the game that we only need to keep Zelaya out until the next term, at which point the issue becomes mute. While not verbally standing by the Constitutional government is distressing, encouraging locals to take up the responsibility of stopping Chavism may prove to be a wise move.

  3. Brent,

    You should have linked the poll of adults, since children can’t vote. The fact that independents are being lost by the handfuls should worry his re-election team, but still, with over 51% approval and only 41% disapproval among adults…and given the wide disparity between Democratic and Republican support, the real news is that the Republican party has been severely depleted.

    We are still a little too early in his Presidency to be making long-term predictions. Recall that GWB had similar numbers (51 vs 39) just before 9/11 and one week later shot up to 86/10 and stayed pretty high for the next year.

    I would however like a clear analysis of why he 1) chose his economic team and 2) stays with them, because quite honestly it’s a mystery — except that I have seen a few rumblings from outlier analysts that, yet, the stimulus etc are working.

    Obama’s numbers are now falling less because of that than because of the well-orchestrated anti-health movement, call it what you will. I’m still wondering if Obama will retreat gracefully or….well who knows.

  4. Atlantic Politics guru Marc Ambinder claims Obama a few months ago left Obama now with little choice on the matter of prosecuting federal crimes.

    http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/08/the_worst_political_decision_ever_maybe_its_not_about_politics.php

    All I wonder is, if we have federal laws which imply imprisonment for their violation, why have them if we won’t actually prosecute those (Cheney, Paulson, Geithner) who violate them willingly in the name of executive branch power grabs?

  5. Curtis,

    I’ve bene following pollster [1], which currently has Obama below 50%. Elections (so I am told) are referenda on the incumbent. If this is the case, things are going good for the GOP.

    All that said…

    I would however like a clear analysis of why he 1) chose his economic team and 2) stays with them, because quite honestly it’s a mystery

    The only reason I can think of is that they provide a vehicle for him to take control without responsibility [2], while blaming them for the politically unpopular economic revolution. This seems to violate my desire to ascribe weird behavior to stupidity rather than malice, though.

    Obama’s numbers are now falling less because of that than because of the well-orchestrated anti-health movement, call it what you will. I’m still wondering if Obama will retreat gracefully or….well who knows.

    The weakness of ObamaCare to community organization has been striking.

    Jeffrey,

    Not particularly, but I take the problems of IHS very seriously.

    A much more popular, and incremental, move would be to combine the dysfunctional IHS and VA bureaucracies. and create the kernal of a public option by improving what we already have.

    Eddie,

    The CIA proved that it is very adept at strategicly timed leaks under the Bush Administration. I wonder what they are saving up against Obama?

    PS,

    Indeed. It may be time for short-term concerns, however. It’s been reported that the next initiative is immigration reform. What can Obama get through in this climate?

    [1] http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php
    [2] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2009/08/27/control-without-responsibility.html

  6. Lol Dan, you also linked Pollster but not the “Adults” results. It’s weird that the site would have an overall graph which apparently includes asking children.

    Having said that, the Pollster Adults graph has shown another drop for Obama, now under 50% approval.

  7. Hey Curtis,

    Lol Dan, you also linked Pollster but not the “Adults” results. It’s weird that the site would have an overall graph which apparently includes asking children.

    Not if you’re familiar with survey research & methodology.

    If you’re calling up a random number of households, some will be answered by adults, some by children. Both are indicators (if with different reliability) of how the adults in that household will vote. Both recording and not recording the responses of those too young to vote introduces bias into your model.

    The question becomes how do you handle that bias, how do you model it. That’s proprietary to each firm. In general you prefer more responses to less, however, so you don’t censor your own findings.

    Having said that, the Pollster Adults graph has shown another drop for Obama, now under 50% approval.

    Indeed, and the overall finding of deteriorating support is probably more meaningful than the specific fractions of any source.

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