Lots of Debt, Lots of Bailouts, Not Many Jobs
by tdaxp ~ November 6th, 2009
US now the world’s 20th most endebted country.
Fannie Mae needs another bailout.
Unemployment now over 10%.
The bailouts and stimulus bills were sold to us as preventing unemployment from reaching 10% — it is now more than 10%. Either they had no effect, or the economic leadership of this country is operating in the dark.
November 6th, 2009 at 9:16 am
Dan,
I would also point out that the 10.2% number that came out today understates the actual unemployment rate. Barry Ritholtz has thoroughly fisked the numbers over the years (allowing readers to understand how the numbers are calculated and what is not included.) Shadowstats also maintains alternate statistics that are not as contrived as the official releases. Over at Shadowstats they are showing of unemployment at above 20%. In short, the stimulus did not work (will not work) and the current administration is operating in the dark (just like you insinuate.)
Regards,
TDL
Relevant links:
http://www.shadowstats.com/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
November 6th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
as it was said, history will not repeat, but it will rhyme.
just as WWI, wiemar inflation, and D1 led to WWII, so will the middle east, D2, etc lead to WWIII.
as WWII led to pax americana, WWIII will lead to pax christi.
we have a wonderful future ahead of us — but what we will have to go through to get there will be literal hell on earth.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:22 am
TDL,
Absolutely agreed.
Doug,
Any war effort by us depends on funding by any conceivable enemy. We couldn’t even wage a Cold War against China, for instance, without China agreeing to subsidize our debt while we do so.
Relatedly, China seems to be making noise about labeling the US a protectionist state [1]. Considering that the netroot’s reaction to the failed stimulus is to blame China [2], I can’t see this getting much better.
[1] http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/88006/
[2] http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/11/4/800647/-2000-More-Green-Jobs-Sent-to-China-On-Our-Stimulus-Dollar
November 9th, 2009 at 7:48 am
“Either they had no effect, or the economic leadership of this country is operating in the dark.”
I don’t think that this follows from your graph.
The stimulus may have had no effect. I don’t think that that’s true, but it is possible. The stimulus may have had some effect, but not enough to prevent (the most restrictive measure of) unemployment from reaching 10%. In either case, the economic leadership of the country could be operating in the dark.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Vimothy,
Thank you for your comment. I agree with the facts you cite, but I do not follow your argument. The economic leadership of the country argued that a successful stimulus would lead to lower unemployment than a lack of a stimulus, and in either case, unemployment would be lower than 10%.
As we have had a stimulus, and suffer from unemployment higher than 10%, either they did not understand the situation, or a stimulus is of no value, or both.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:54 am
They might not have understanded the situation, or the stimulus is of no value, or both. I agree with that. I don’t think it’s controversial to describe them as possibilities.
But they’re surely not the only possibilities. For instance, the stimulus may have had some effect, but not enough to prevent employment from falling to over 10%. That’s a possibility, and one that has some expert support. This is also not incompatible with the Administration not understanding the situation.
On the other hand, they may have accurately understood the situation, but ended up for political reasons with a stimulus bill that was insufficient to prevent unemployment from falling to 10%.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:45 am
Vimothy.
Agreed.
The line
“Either they had no effect, or the economic leadership of this country is operating in the dark.”
Should read
“Either they had no effect, or the economic leadership of the country lied about it, or economic leadership of this country is operating in the dark.”
November 10th, 2009 at 6:39 am
Ha!
At any rate, my reading is that the stimulus has had an effect, but for a variety of reasons (some political and some academic), was not sufficient.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Reid wants another round of stimulus [1], to go along with the upcoming round of bailouts.
Your comments have been very useful to me in understanding the situation, vimothy. I appreciate them.
[1] http://imarketnews.com/?q=node/4897