Reaction to “The Long Type of Time”

Lexington Green has closed the Afghanistan in 2050 roundtable, and given these reactions to my contribution, “The Long Type of Time

Dan tdaxp applied the XGW framework, and made what I found to be the most compelling statement in the RT, which I will paraphrase. Dan noted four timescales: short, medium, long and very long. The first is the realm of military action, the second of political action, the third of economic change, the fourth of cultural transformation. The 40 year time scale of the RT is beyond the scope of military or political action, but too short for cultural transformation. So, the answer to where Afghanistan will be in 40 years lies in the realm of economic development. This sphere is relatively resilient and resistant to the happenstances of human agency. Which means that the very great likelihood, assuming current trends continue, is that Afghanistan will be an economic satellite of China. That seems to me to be exactly right.

Thanks Lex!

3 thoughts on “Reaction to “The Long Type of Time””

  1. Not sure I see the 40 year China scenario. Lots of pitfalls. 1) geography, geography, geography. CHina is sometimes called an island nation b/c of the way mountains and deserts surround it. 2) china does not have a winning strategy for dealing with Islamic influence. 3) why not Iran or Pakistan? “a unified AfPak.”

    also, never forget that lack of cultural transformation is always an option. that’s the history of Africa since colonial era. Afghanistan has some of the geographic & resource disadvantages (minerals = resource curse).

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