“Scenario: Chechen Independence (Part 1), by John Robb, Global Guerillas, http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2005/01/scenario_cheche.html, 26 January 2005.
“And now, a more direct criticism of the Chechen independence scenario sketched by John Robb, above, by”dialectic,” Global Guerillas, http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2005/02/scenario_cechen.html, 28 January 2005.
“Scenario: Chechen Independence (Part 2), by John Robb, Global Guerillas, http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2005/02/scenario_cechen.html, 2 February 2005.
Commenting on a Global Guerillas article that gives advice to Chechen seperatists (by imagining a news article from the future)
The new Chechen strategy, enabled by a small percentage of the tens of thousands of Chechen exiles scattered throughout Russia, emerged with multiple attacks on the critical sections of Gazprom’s natural gas pipeline network to the north and south of Moscow. The simplicity of the attacks were alarming. Many were done merely with a propane tank. In one hour, access to 500 b cubic meters a year of output was cut off. The damage in the attacks was extensive enough to require 2 weeks of repair work.
This would have been containable, given the system’s forward storage system, if it only occured once. However, attacks continued along the hundreds of miles of vulnerable natural gas pipelines in the critical sections. This radically reduced supply. The net effect was a 70% delivery shortfall to critical European export markets and western domestic customers in the first three months of the new campaign. It couldn’t have been planned better — storage levels were are their nadir following a particularly cold winter.
It did. Putin, faced with the option of a decade of delay in Russian economic progress or Chechen independence, chose independence. A cease fire was called in October of 2005 to negotiated the referendum. It culminated in the document he was to sign today. Chechnya would be free. Global guerrillas had won.
Comes a Bizarro-Barnett comment
I think it very likely that Chechnia will attain independence from Russia, and may well do so via â€œSystem Disruptionsâ€ targeted on the Russian energy transmission network.
BUT: It wonâ€™t be as a result of Global Guerilla activity. Rather, it is overwhelmingly likely to come about because of CIA â€“ Special Forces destabilization activities put into operation in those regions and funded by the US.
(The side bar specifically lists The Pentagon’s New Map as suggested reading, implying the poster means system perturbations).
In a follow-up article Mr. Robb comments
How the media cover “terrorism” can also provide support for global guerrillas. Direct assaults on the target population (traditional terrorism like that of the Chechen Black Widows) get the greatest coverage. It dominates the headlines and therefore will evoke the greatest defensive response from the target state. Attacks on infrastructure get much less coverage and therefore less attention. However, the impact of systems sabotage vs. traditional terrorism on markets is entirely lopsided in favor of systems sabotage. In the parlance of Blitzkrieg, traditional terrorism would be termed a Nebenpunkt (a distracting effort).
This “media effect” in combination with the vast vulnerability of a state’s critical systems architecture, provides an amazingly effective means of manufacturing indirection. As we see in Iraq, the state is in a perpetual collapse due to systems sabotage, while the vast majority of the defensive effort is put towards the defense of the political, governmental, and military targets. Large attacks against high profile symbolic targets (of traditional terrorism) provides the cover to allow systems sabotage to remain a green field — a set of targets that are always under-defended and continuously provide amazing rates of return on the violence capital invested.
I don’t know what to make of the site. It is well written and does not appear to be a parody. Sadly sometimes, blogs do make for superempowered-individuals.