Dreaming 5GW, Part VI: Dream of 5GW

Indwelt Kadath (from okoun.cz)

“We’ll run away, keep everything simple
Night will come down, our guardian angel
We rush ahead, the crossroads are empty
Our spirits rise, they’re not gonna get us

They don’t understand,
They don’t understand us”

Not Going to Get Us, Tatu

This brings me back to my original question: what would a 5GW look like? Once I understood the organization, developmental, doctrinal, and other aspects of 5th Generation War, picturing one in operation was trivial.

The Border War

A small, close-knight, highly-able team of Nativists wishes to militarize the Southwest border of the United States against Mexican migrants. Unable to handle the “content flow” of Latin culture and people, the Nativists believe they have exhausted attempts at political satisfaction. Therefore, they try politics by other means: war. Their aim is limited: the subversion of the government of the United States of America into closing the Southern border. (The aim of the Persian Gulf War coalition was similar: subvert the government of Iraq into closing the Iraq-Kuwait border against military and governmental Iraqi content flow.)

Logical View of Nativist-USG Struggle

The nativists seek an economy of force. They realize they are weak — perhaps only a few dozen highly-able members. They also realize it would be trivial for the FBI or even local police to round them up if their “treason” was discovered. Therefore they look to see what other forces they can leverage.

A big possibility stands out: the Global War on Terrorism. The USG is at war with al Qaeda, with Arab Muslims supporting both entities to different extents in different ways.

The Found Environment: The Global War on Terrorism

Which of course means:

The two conflicts, seen together

The Nativists now create two shadow organizations: Islamophiles and Islamaphobes. These are more than false-flag organizations, because the shadow organizations will honestly strive to achieve their stated goals. However, the success of the shadow organizations is irrelevant to the success of the Nativists. Both the Islamophiles and Islamophobes publicly support the United States Government, and assist the USG in some ways. However, the leadership of both shadow-groups is part of the Nativist network.

First Step of Implementation: Shadow Networks Created

Next, the shadow networks begin engaging in paramilitary operations. However, neither shadow network directly attacks the U.S. Government, and both continue supporting the Government as they are able. The purpose of the Islamophobes is to provoke and antagonize the Arab Muslim population. Publicly, the Islamophobes agitate for the removal or internment of the Arab Muslim population. On a street level, the Phobes align with anti-Arab-Muslim street gangs, escalating to political assassination of Arab-Muslims moderates and “outrage” attacks (bombing of deserted mosques, etc). The purpose is to disrupt peaceful Arab Muslim networks.

Simultaneously, the Islamophiles work to defend the civil rights of Arab Muslims, paying especial communication to maintaining liberal communication networks between American and international Arab Muslims. The Philes will work to create Arab-Muslim “self defense” networks, which will have the natural consequence of increasing the militancy of the Arab Muslim population. Most critically, the Philes will strive to make physical communication with the Arab world as easy as possible (“charity” smuggling networks, with a complementary political effort). The purpose is to prevent disruption of internationally-originating terrorist attacks.

The Philes and Phobes will engage in “phony” attacks on each other, as well.

The Frictional Sea of Conflict

Then, bam, a spectacular terrorist attack.

The details of the attack, and the particulars of its effects, don’t concern us. Nor does the fate of the American Arab population (interned? expelled? integrated?). But a natural consequence of such an attack will be an increase in border security. There already is strong agitation among working-class whites for “border crackdown.” For now, the cries are to weak to move a Government committed to North American integration.

But a few more 9/11s would change Washington’s mind.

And all of the 9/11s would happen without the Government understanding their was a thinking force supporting the attacks that had no concern whatsoever for bin Ladenism

So a natural consequence of the US Government’s escalating war against al Qaeda will be much tighter control of immigration and the Mexican border, including either National Guardsmen or Soldiers on watch. The 5th Generation Warriors have won.

The militant Nativist network is now abandoned as obsolete: the government has been subverted. The shadow networks are abandoned, allowed to run their course as passions dictate. The war against al Qaeda goes on, but it would have continued away.

What Victory Looks Like

For the price of a few thousand lives, the 5th Generation Warriors have won without their enemy — the American Government — ever realizing that it was in a war against them.

There are even purer forms of 5GW. But such is a post for another time…

Dreaming 5GW, a tdaxp series
1. The Dream-Quest of Unknown 5GW
2. The Uncaring War
3. Lessons from Software Development
4. 5th Generation Networks
5. A Boydian Approach to 5GW
6. A Dream of 5GW

Rosa Parks Way

While driving to a picnic on Saturday, I was disoriented to discover that a portion of “Capitol Parkway” had been renamed Rosa Parks Way. I was first struck by the criminal nature of this pun, and then secondly struck by how it seems typical of how misguided much of black community politics is.

Much self-consciously “black” politics seems to focus on either the deification of early leaders or rent seeking. Strivers such as Martin Luther King, Rosa Parks, Thurgood Marshall, and Jessee Jackson are celebrated, in a move that both marginalizes non-Southern black political cliques and obscures the actual nature of their opponents. The other purpose of the movement appears to be the political diversion of funds from other parts of the conomy. Companies are Coca-Cola are urged to spend resources on the victorious southern black clique, while “affirmative action” programs broaden the clique’s powerbase in an iron triangle of patronage.

Latino politics, in contrast, seems focused on a different goal: increasing the number of latinos. This has been quite effective. Rising from negligible status, latinos have risen to be the largest “minority” group in the country. At their current rate of growth, it’s likely that in the future “Latinos” will be all places and no places in the same way that, say, “German-Americans” are.

America may be tuned for a large supply of low-wage labor, but the fact is that labor is not coming from the Afro-Carribena or even Africa. The largest quantity of new immigrants are coming from Mexico and the rest of Latin America.

In part because of their different political strategies, the “black community” has consumed greater resources than would otherwise be the case but have made little systematic headway over the past generation. Latinos, by contrast, are becoming every more powerful.

Because they have avoided the “Rosa Parks Way” of doing politics.

Review of "Mao’s Last Revolution" by Roderick MacFarquhar and Michael Schoenhals

This book by Roderick MacFarquhar and Michael Schnoenhals a history of the insane Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. I saw “insane” purposefully. Such actions as the Holocaust and even Cambodia’s “Year Zero” in a way make sense, as they were purposeful applications of an ideology designed to achieve a defined end. Mao’s war against the Communist Party, however, Hitler was more-or-less in charge of the destruction of the Jews, as Pol Pot more-or-less oversaw the destruction of the Cambodians. Mao opted for a less conventional approach. Rival “Red Guard” organizations tested dirty bombs in a series of escalations and even attacked arms shipments intended for the Vietnam War. Mao’s Last Revolution is the story of this madness.

Mao’s Legacy

The Cultural Revolution took place in the context of Soviet “revisionism,” where first Khrushchev and then Brezhnev reformed the soviet system away from a cult of personality to the nondescript party oligarchy it eventually became. Mao feared a similar transformation of the People’s Republic, and identified “Khrushchevs” around him. Immediate threats were the pragmatic Secretary-General of the Communist Party Deng Xiaoping and Mao’s designated successor, Liu Shaoqi. Mao recognized the broader threat as the Chinese Communist Party itself, however, and proceeded to destroy it.

Smash the Liu-Deng Line!

Mao first purged the Mayor of Beijing and the Chief of Staff of the People’s Liberation Army to severe the Party’s links to supporting organizations. Then he proceeded to destroy it. Red Guards were incited to tear down the Party organization, and the Army was then unleashed to tear down the Red Guards. (The self-described Red Terror is told in enough detail that one positively roots for the Army as it mows down “student demonstrators.” The context of Tiananmen has never been more clear.)

Red Guards (Useful Idiots)

Throughout the book specific incidents and anecdotes are elaborated on. The cities of Beijing (radicalized by the presence of Peking and Tsinghua Universities, not to mention the sometimes presence of Mao himself), Shanghai (where the Red Guards were subsumed by the organization of factoryworker-cum-intellectual Wang Hongwen, later one of the Gang of Four), and Wuhan (where Mao might have been deposed). Wuhan is especially notable as the beginning of the misfortunes of Wang Li, a high-ranking but not especially powerful member of the Central Cultural Revolutionary Group. Wang is attacked and tortured by enraged followers of a PLA General that Wang completed peace talks with, later is imprisoned by his fellow Culturally Revolutions, and only released by the Deng government in 1982.

The People’s Liberation Army

Mao, whose Lou Gherig’s disease worsens as the history continues on, is a master politician who is able to place one group against the other. His Red Guards destroy the Party, the People’s Liberation Army (headed by toady Lin Biao) destroys the Red Guards, and the purging of Lin and other top generals in the PLA returns the government to “civilian” rule. Mao’s 5GW is in a brilliant position on his death, with his wife and the rest of the Gang of Four in power behind a hapless toady, Hua Guofeng. Only a rump and discredited band of “survivors,” those kept alive and with nominal party membership by Mao Zedong, remain.

Happily for the fate of the world, Madame Mao is an idiot many times over and provokes a defensive coup by Hua Guofeng which results in Deng Xiaoping’s final, and successful, rise to power. In an epilogue, the authors note that Mao is the last of the “traditional” Chinese rulers (anti-market) and Deng the first of the radicals (pro-market). Deng has now been succeeded by Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, who now “re-envision” Mao’s legacy in what must be a nightmare to the Chairman’s Ghost.

Mao’s Last Revolution is one of the best histories I have ever read, and easily the most readable. Strongly recommended.

Iraq Against Appeasement

Great news

Iraq’s parliament adjourned Monday for an August recess without receiving from the government a series of U.S.-backed draft laws designed to promote national unity and stem support for the Sunni-led insurgency.

In spite of pressure from Baathists, Qaedist, and Bushist (heh) elements, the democratically elected government of Iraq has resisted pressure to divert monies and resources to the insurgency. While each group has its own reason to force the Republic of Iraq to bankroll terror (the Baathis to salvage as much of their democidal regime as possible, the Qaedis to bankroll an Islamic Revolution, and the Bushis for reasons that make sense only inside the Beltway), most Iraqis prefer not to.

The Iraq War is a form of feedback to the Sunni Arab World in particular and the Gap in general. It is a demonstration of the bankruptcy and a stunning indictment against all those who took sides against Iraq, against democracy, and against America. Forcing the elected government of Iraq to have a half-victory against terror by cynically compelling it in bankroll the insurgency would be a shameful act. Fortunately for us, for Iraq, and for history, the Iraqi Parliament will not be so capitulating. At least not this August.

To the parliament of Iraq: have a good vacation. You’ve earned it.

Introducing "Security Today" Blog

July must be a good month for blogs. Not only has Shane Diechman of IATGR and Enterra started blogging at Wizads of Oz (be sure to check out the discussion at “Future Warfare?“), Joel Helgeson (who recently commented here on Blackwater) has begun Security Today. From his first post:

What has happened is that every time the IC has tried to develop a database of information, or share, disseminate or declassify information it is lambasted by privacy rights groups. So, more and more, the IC themselves are turning to private organizations who have databases on the American public that are far more comprehensive than ANYTHING the intel agencies would ever be permitted to gather. Think ChoicePoint, Equifax, Experian, TransUnion, LexisNexis, and so forth. As a private citizen, I have more access to this information than the IC or LEO.

It is astounding to see how often common blog posts are cited in intel reports as reliable sources for actionable information – and they should be. Blogs are the greatest, most efficient method of gathering intel from distributed sources around the globe.

Welcome to the blogosphere, Joel!

Graduation Update

I am extremely lucky to have a very caring and very hard working academic adviser. Unfunded out-of-state graduate tuition is quite pricey, and owing to the logic of bureaucracy my summer credits for Notes on Rails were going to be charged as such. A few phone calls later all that was taken care of.

Now, in spite of having completed all the work, I will graduate until December. This doesn’t change the PhD timeline at all, it doesn’t alter my fall assistantship, and I won’t need to re-comp. The only thing it does impact are the date on a peace of paper (meaningless!) and a chunk of change (meaningful!).

So unlike what happened to my bike, this is good news!

Dreaming 5GW, Part V: A Boydian Approach to 5GW

Dizzying Kadath (from okoun.cz)

“If there’s anything you know
Please send me a letter
PS: Kiss my ass

Dick Is a Killer, Rx

5GW is substantively different from all previous forms of Modern War. Yet it is a natural evolution of warfare and the basic Art of War remains the same. And specifically, the lessons of Colonel Boyd’s Patterns of Conflict hold even in 5GW, where only one side knows it is fighting.

Slide 6

Idea of fast transients suggests that, in order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries—or, better yet, get inside adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action time cycle or loop.

Commentary: Or best yet, arrange the enemy’s OODA loop, so his thoughts never flow into the orient-decide-act power-line relative to you, your plan, or your organization.

Slide 11

Diminish adversary’s capacity for independent action, or deny him the opportunity to survive on his own terms, or make it impossible for him to survive at all.

Commentary: In limited 5GWs, removing the enemy’s “capacity for independent action” is the goal. Specifically, the fighter tries to entangle the enemy into a web of obligations that effectively reharmonize the enemy, without the enemy knowing that he has “conditionally surrendered.”

Slide 115

Fire and movement are used in combination, like cheng/ch’i or Nebenpunkte/Schwerpunkt, to tie-up, divert, or drain-away adversary attention and strength in order to expose as well as menace and exploit vulnerabilities or weaknesses elsewhere.

Commentary: In a successful 5GW, the enemy’s attention won’t so much needed to be “diverted” away from a focus but “misdirected” from ever attaining that focus.

Slide 76

Create tangles of threatening and/or non-threatening events/efforts as well as repeatedly generate mismatches between those events/efforts adversary observes or imagines (cheng/Nebenpunkte) and those he must react to (ch’i/Schwerpunkt)

Commentary: In a successful 5GW, the events the enemy “must” react to are an “unknown unknown.” The enemy doesn’t know what they are, and doesn’t even know that he needs to know what they are.

Dreaming 5GW, a tdaxp series
1. The Dream-Quest of Unknown 5GW
2. The Uncaring War
3. Lessons from Software Development
4. 5th Generation Networks
5. A Boydian Approach to 5GW
6. A Dream of 5GW

Night Visitor

A knock came from the other side of the door as we prepaed to go to sleep.

I opened the door, and a fast-talking, short, fat, Russian woman was on the other side. “HelloIamyournewneighborIjustmovedinafewweeksagoandIhaveseenyouaround” she began.

A short conversation rapidly established the following

  • She had a young baby who needed prescription medicine
  • She had a restraining order against husband
  • She had a steady job as a technician
  • She believed in/had been taught about/ and loved Jesus.
  • She needed cash. $40, if at all possible. She could pay us back on Wednesday。

“Do you live in our building?” I asked.
“Notheonenextdoordownthestreet” she responded.

“Who manages your building?” I asked.
“IdontknowmygroupofRussiansfoundthisapartmentforme” she answered.

I was in a generous mood, so I agreed. “Just bring me a photo ID like a driver’s license, and show me where you live” I said, and I would write her a check. “Okayokaythankyou” said the short, fat, Russian woman. “Iwillcomerightbackwiththerentralagreement.”

She never did. I regretted not getting a picture.

Dreaming 5GW, Part IV: 5th Generation Networks

Precious Kadath (from okoun.cz)

“My punishment is more than I can bear. Today you are driving me from the land, and I will be hidden from your presence; I will be a restless wanderer on the earth, and whoever finds me will kill me.”
Cain (Genesis 4:13-14)

The the nature of the networks that hold together a 5th Generation military is predetermined by that network’s need for secrecy and need for serial development. We know

  • A 5GW army will be unable to recruit to any sizable degree
  • A 5GW will be very unable to recruit during operations (development), because that is when the danger is the greatest
  • A 5GW will rely on strategic corporals or sheiks, who are super-empowered.
  • A 5GW will rely on “sleeper cells” who must not give up, get bored, or switched sides.

From this we know every 5G warrior will be valuable to the 5G militia. Likewise, to succeed every 5G warrior must value the 5G project.

In other words, a fifth generation war is a lot like a struggling software project at a cash-strapped corporation. It needs to keep its head down, or it will be found-out and terminated. The solution is to have a collection of cross-specialist high-quality workers who know each other and make every worker a stakeholder — that is, make every worker feel that at least some important decisions were his decision. The team, is able to subvert the corporate system, diverting resources for the benefits of the project under the radar of jealous management.

The team plans, analyzes, and plans together. While there should be a “leader,” consensus management is a must. Every team member is constantly reminded, in words and deeds, how important he is. Team and project loyalty are established, and by the time jealous management learns of the project — after implementation, it is too late.

While there are no running starts in 4GW, every 5GW must be fully-operational by the time it is launched.

Dreaming 5GW, a tdaxp series
1. The Dream-Quest of Unknown 5GW
2. The Uncaring War
3. Lessons from Software Development
4. 5th Generation Networks
5. A Boydian Approach to 5GW
6. A Dream of 5GW

Sneak Peak at "World Hall"

Recently, Shane Deichman of Wizards of Oz introduced me to World Hall‘s closed beta. World Hall will be an online collaboration tool currently under development, that seeks to bridge the gap between communication and action. World Hall is an open source project, and can be seen as a Wikipedia for collaboration.

Entering data and starting discussions in World Hall is easy enough that I had initially hoped that it would position itself as a full fledged blog management system. However, at this point World Hall faces a big question: how should attribution be handled? Attribution is obviously central to blogs, where a weblog is either the product of one person and even group-blogs clearly identify who is contributing what. In a wiki, however, authorship may be stored for administrative purposes, but the authors of a piece are essentially anonymous. The creators of World Hall recognize that a start-up should focus on what it hopes to do best, so World Hall will be less of a blog/wiki and more of a microsoft project/wiki. The decision to focus on project management instead of discussion management will make World Hall invaluable for tight-knit communities, 5GW plotters, and the like, while more decentralized networks and 4G organizations would be advised to look elsewhere.

World Hall looks like it will be quite the product, and my thanks to both Shane and everyone at World Hall for giving me both the back-stage pass, and the inside information. Thanks!