What the Core, and Africa, need from China

Two excelent posts this morning: Tom focuses on Chinese growth while Steve and Bradd note African stagnation. From Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog:

China today looks like the U.S. of the 1920s to Marc Faber, a well-known money manager based in Thailand. He notes that just as Chinese investors are confident about their economy, the U.S. economy was surging on hopes about technological changes like the radio and about the rise of a consumer class.

Of course, the 1929 crash set in motion a host of new rule sets in America, prompting “the creation of basic investor safeguards that strengthened the market and probably limited fallout from later tumbles.”

Not “probably,” I would say.

So like I say, China will learn from scandals and crashes. The key for us, is how we mentor them in this process, because we’ve been there and done all that before.

But you look at all that uncertainty and looming new rule sets that the Party knows full well it’ll have to adopt as the country matures and moves through all these inevitable crises, and it’s little surprise to me that China has no desire whatsoever to stick its neck out on the Burmas and Darfurs and Irans and North Koreas of the world. Why pick up the quagmire when you got this much going on at home?

The rest of the Core needs China to do three things:

  1. Do not attack attack Taiwan or otherwise threaten the security of another Core state
  2. Develop a civil society
  3. Bring security to Africa

The first goal is achieved through making it quietly but profoundly clear that the Communist Party could not survive a war with Taiwan. From encouraging the nuclearization of Japan and Taiwan to deepending military relationships with India, America has many tools to complement her navy and air force.

The second part is achieved through economic and cultural openness, both by encouraging civil society organizations to develop within China and convincing China to drop protectionism against civil society organizations without. From Soros’ Open Society Institute” to Ratzinger’s “Catholic Church,” large scale institutions are able and eager to replicate themselves within China.

The last goal is harder. China’s deepending engagement with Africa is fueld by her need for raw materials. As this rebel faction or that group of thugs kidnap Chinese workers to gain cash, China will be forced to export security to Africa. It combined with American logistics and UN bureaucratization, a substantial part of Africa’s security oversight could be removed from locals and given to the Core.

China is sometimes referred to as the “future of profit” or “future of threat.” She may also be the future of Africa.

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