How new theories in human information processing explain the meltdown on Wall Street
At the heart of the answer to this vexing question on the melt down of Wall Street is a major shift in the underlying psychological theories of human decision-making. In fact contemporary theory on human error research has shifted entirely from the idea of â€œdecision-makingâ€ to the concept of â€œsense-makingâ€. The underlying cognitive science behind this new way of visualizing how individuals and more important entire institutions assess risk is known generally as â€œNaturalistic Decision Makingâ€ or NDM. What this new view teaches is that there are no â€œpoints-in-timeâ€ that constitute rational decision triggers, but that problems like RISK management on Wall Street are actually an accumulated series of EXPERIENCES that flow together to create situations that are filled with distortions such â€œpositive outcome biasâ€. We now know from significant research that these distortions make it nearly impossible for those directly involved in such situations to make intelligent (reasoned) decisions about actual RISK.
What I get from this Pulse UX piece, as well as the conclusion from a recent piece at Mini-Microsoft…
As a result, you get something like Office 2003 where the end-user feature set was so hard to describe that marketing had to resort to odd ads of people creating dog-piles of ecstasy over the release and ads warning customers that they are dinosaurs if they don’t upgrade. We can’t really describe what features you’ll get, but at least you won’t be a dinosaur… heh?
Like that point from The Field above, we need to focus on the customer experience vs. barely wired together technology which typically is redundant and confusing. At home I like watching videos stored on my Ultimate machine, and I’ve got about six different services running to do it multiplied by three different networked video boxes hooked to my TV. For a given video, I have to know the right hardware plus software combination. We want to own the living room, but our customer experience is mentally and physically scattered between Media Center, Xbox, WMP, Zune, and partner media boxes. I love Media Center and I think it should be present in all SKUs of the OS (excluding good ole N) but with something like the Fuji release I get pretty concerned about where it’s going. Around the consumer experience we need coherent focus, not a scattered competitive model.
.. is that, too often someone comes up with something, and says it represents reality, without offering any validation for that. What I mean is, we hear that such-and-such is a measure of 4GW, or of User Experience, or of risk, or something, and we take it on faith.